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Ice sheet simulations suffer from vast parametric uncertainties, such as the basal sliding boundary condition or geothermal heat flux. Quantifying the resulting uncertainties in predictions is of utmost importance to support judicious…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-12-10 Nicole Aretz , Max Gunzburger , Mathieu Morlighem , Karen Willcox

Wind gusts, being inherently stochastic, can significantly influence the safety and performance of aircraft. This study investigates a three-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) problem to explore how uncertainties in gust and flight…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Bingran Wang , Michael Warner , Aoran Tian , Luca Scotzniovsky , John T. Hwang

The formation and accretion of ice on the leading edge of a wing can be detrimental to airplane performance. Complicating this reality is the fact that even a small amount of uncertainty in the shape of the accreted ice may result in a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-11-14 Anthony M. DeGennaro , Clarence W. Rowley , Luigi Martinelli

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

Turbulent flows play an important role in many scientific and technological design problems. Both Sub-Grid Scale (SGS) models in Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) based modeling will require turbulence…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-07-16 Minghan Chu

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Accurate prediction of urban wind flow is essential for urban planning, pedestrian safety, and environmental management. Yet, it remains challenging due to uncertain boundary conditions and the high cost of conventional CFD simulations.…

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

The formation and accretion of ice on the leading edge of an airfoil can be detrimental to aerodynamic performance. Furthermore, the geometric shape of leading edge ice profiles can vary significantly depending on a wide range of physical…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-06-01 Anthony M. DeGennaro , Clarence W. Rowley , Luigi Martinelli

Emergence of artificial intelligence techniques in biomedical applications urges the researchers to pay more attention on the uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine-assisted medical decision making. For classification tasks, prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Xiaoyang Huang , Jiancheng Yang , Linguo Li , Haoran Deng , Bingbing Ni , Yi Xu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jiaxin Zhang

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in wind speed forecasting is a critical challenge in wind power production due to the inherently volatile nature of wind. By quantifying the associated risks and returns, UQ supports more effective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Pritam Anand , Aadesh Minz , Asish Joel

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an essential tool for applying deep neural networks (DNNs) to real world tasks, as it attaches a degree of confidence to DNN outputs. However, despite its benefits, UQ is often left out of the standard DNN…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-07 Nils Lehmann , Jakob Gawlikowski , Adam J. Stewart , Vytautas Jancauskas , Stefan Depeweg , Eric Nalisnick , Nina Maria Gottschling

It is well known that Boussinesq turbulent-viscosity hypothesis can introduce uncertainty in predictions for complex flow features such as separation, reattachment, and laminar-turbulent transition. This study adopts a recent physics-based…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-10-19 Minghan Chu , Xiaohua Wu , David E. Rival

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

In modern process industries, data-driven models are important tools for real-time monitoring when key performance indicators are difficult to measure directly. While accurate predictions are essential, reliable uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Yiran Ma , Jerome Le Ny , Zhichao Chen , Zhihuan Song

It is well known that the Boussinesq turbulent viscosity hypothesis can yield inaccurate predictions when complex f low features are involved, e.g. laminar-turbulent transition. The focus of the study is to explore the capability of a…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-08-01 Minghan Chu , Xiaohua Wu , David E. Rival

Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures…

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