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The Gaussian graphical model (GGM) incorporates an undirected graph to represent the conditional dependence between variables, with the precision matrix encoding partial correlation between pair of variables given the others. To achieve…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Yueqi Qian , Xianghong Hu , Can Yang

Maximizing the likelihood has been widely used for estimating the unknown covariance parameters of spatial Gaussian processes. However, evaluating and optimizing the likelihood function can be computationally intractable, particularly for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-16 Hossein Keshavarz , XuanLong Nguyen , Clayton Scott

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-28 Konstantinos E. Tatsis , Vasilis K. Dertimanis , Eleni N. Chatzi

In nonlinear latent variable models or dynamic models, if we consider the latent variables as confounders (common causes), the noise dependencies imply further relations between the observed variables. Such models are then closely related…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Kun Zhang , Bernhard Schoelkopf , Dominik Janzing

Accurate learning of system dynamics is becoming increasingly crucial for advanced control and decision-making in engineering. However, real-world systems often exhibit multiple channels and highly nonlinear transition dynamics, challenging…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Tengjie Zheng , Jilan Mei , Di Wu , Lin Cheng , Shengping Gong

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Edoardo Marcelli , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

Gaussian-process state-space models (GP-SSMs) provide a flexible nonparametric alternative for modeling time-series dynamics that are nonlinear or difficult to specify parametrically. While the Kalman filter is effective for linear-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Genshiro Kitagawa

This article is concerned with learning and stochastic control in physical systems which contain unknown input signals. These unknown signals are modeled as Gaussian processes (GP) with certain parametrized covariance structures. The…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-08-15 Simo Särkkä , Mauricio A. Álvarez , Neil D. Lawrence

Latent force models (LFMs) are hybrid models combining mechanistic principles with non-parametric components. In this article, we shall show how LFMs can be equivalently formulated and solved using the state variable approach. We shall also…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Jouni Hartikainen , Simo Sarkka

We propose a nonparametric procedure to achieve fast inference in generative graphical models when the number of latent states is very large. The approach is based on iterative latent variable preselection, where we alternate between…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-06 Jacquelyn A. Shelton , Jan Gasthaus , Zhenwen Dai , Joerg Luecke , Arthur Gretton

The use of Gaussian process models is typically limited to datasets with a few tens of thousands of observations due to their complexity and memory footprint. The two most commonly used methods to overcome this limitation are 1) the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-16 Vincent Adam , Stefanos Eleftheriadis , Nicolas Durrande , Artem Artemev , James Hensman

Point pattern data often exhibit features such as abrupt changes, hotspots and spatially varying dependence in local intensity. Under a Poisson process framework, these correspond to discontinuities and nonstationarity in the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Izabel Nolau , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

State-space models (SSMs) are a powerful statistical tool for modelling time-varying systems via a latent state. In these models, the latent state is never directly observed. Instead, a sequence of data points related to the state are…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-22 Benjamin Cox , Victor Elvira

We introduce a random partition model for Bayesian nonparametric regression. The model is based on infinitely-many disjoint regions of the range of a latent covariate-dependent Gaussian process. Given a realization of the process, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-04 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

Model Predictive Control evolved as the state of the art paradigm for safety critical control tasks. Control-as-Inference approaches thereof model the constrained optimization problem as a probabilistic inference problem. The constraints…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-21 Jörn Tebbe , Andreas Besginow , Markus Lange-Hegermann

This work develops a Bayesian non-parametric approach to signal separation where the signals may vary according to latent variables. Our key contribution is to augment Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) for the case where each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-20 James Odgers , Ruby Sedgwick , Chrysoula Kappatou , Ruth Misener , Sarah Filippi