Related papers: Microfoundations of Expected Utility and Response …

This paper introduces a space of variable lotteries and proves a constructive version of the expected utility theorem. The word ``constructive'' is used here in two senses. First, as in constructive mathematics, the logic underlying proofs…

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

This paper introduces the novel concept of proactive resource allocation in which the predictability of user behavior is exploited to balance the wireless traffic over time, and hence, significantly reduce the bandwidth required to achieve…

We develop a model-independent framework to study the dynamics of decision-making in opinion networks for an arbitrary number of agents and an arbitrary number of options. Model-independence means that the analysis is not performed on a…

We introduce a new class of graphical representations, expected utility networks (EUNs), and discuss some of its properties and potential applications to artificial intelligence and economic theory. In EUNs not only probabilities, but also…

We demonstrate a machine learning based approach which can learn the time-dependent electronic excitation dynamics of small molecules subjected to ion irradiation. Ensembles of recurrent neural networks are trained on data generated by…

The efficient use of available resources is a key factor in achieving success on both personal and organizational levels. One of the crucial resources in knowledge economy is time. The ability to force others to adapt to our schedule even…

We develop estimation and inference methods for a stylized macroeconomic model with potentially multiple behavioural equilibria, where agents form expectations using a constant-gain learning rule. We first show geometric ergodicity of the…

We investigate cortical learning from the perspective of mechanism design. First, we show that discretizing standard models of neurons and synaptic plasticity leads to rational agents maximizing simple scoring rules. Second, our main result…

The random utility model, a cornerstone in economics, is axiomatized by Falmagne (1978) and McFadden and Richter (1990) with the assumption that if a menu is observable, the choice frequencies of all alternatives are also observable.…

Status signaling drives human behavior and the allocation of scarce resources such as mating opportunities, yet the generative mechanisms governing how specific goods, signals, or behaviors acquire prestige remain a puzzle. Classical…

Cooperation is observed widely in nature and is thought an essential component of many evolutionary processes, yet the mechanisms by which it arises and persists are still unclear. Among several theories, network reciprocity -- a model of…

Instead of testing for unanimous agreement, I propose learning how broad of a consensus favors one distribution over another (of earnings, productivity, asset returns, test scores, etc.). Specifically, given a sample from each of two…

We propose a model of opinion formation on resource allocation among multiple topics by multiple agents, who are subject to hard budget constraints. We define a utility function for each agent and then derive a projected dynamical system…

Snapshots of "best" (or "worst") experience are known to dominate human memory and may thus also have a significant effect on future behaviour. We consider here a model of repeated decision-making where, at every time step, an agent takes…

Noncooperative games with uncertain payoffs have been classically studied under the expected-utility theory framework, which relies on the strong assumption that agents behave rationally. However, simple experiments on human decision makers…

While there is ample evidence that social and communication networks play a key role during the spread of new ideas, products, or services, network effects are expected to have diminished influence in the stationary state, when all users…

Population rate or activity equations are the foundation of a common approach to modeling for neural networks. These equations provide mean field dynamics for the firing rate or activity of neurons within a network given some connectivity.…

Social gravity law widely exists in human travel, population migration, commodity trade, information communication, scientific collaboration and so on. Why is there such a simple law in many complex social systems is an interesting…

A growing body of empirical evidence indicates that social and cooperative behavior can be affected by cognitive and neurological factors, suggesting the existence of state-based decision-making mechanisms that may have emerged by…