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Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a regret bound that ensures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Chao Qin , Zheng Wen , Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy

Thompson sampling is one of the most popular learning algorithms for online sequential decision-making problems and has rich real-world applications. However, current Thompson sampling algorithms are limited by the assumption that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Yinglun Xu , Zhiwei Wang , Gagandeep Singh

Obtaining high certainty in predictive models is crucial for making informed and trustworthy decisions in many scientific and engineering domains. However, extensive experimentation required for model accuracy can be both costly and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-17 Giorgio Morales , John Sheppard

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-30 Tim Pearce , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

We present a novel extension of Thompson Sampling for stochastic sequential decision problems with graph feedback, even when the graph structure itself is unknown and/or changing. We provide theoretical guarantees on the Bayesian regret of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-17 Aristide C. Y. Tossou , Christos Dimitrakakis , Devdatt Dubhashi

In stochastic bandit problems, a Bayesian policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has recently attracted much attention for its excellent empirical performance. However, the theoretical analysis of this policy is difficult and its asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-11 Junya Honda , Akimichi Takemura

Thompson sampling is a heuristic algorithm for the multi-armed bandit problem which has a long tradition in machine learning. The algorithm has a Bayesian spirit in the sense that it selects arms based on posterior samples of reward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Yi Liu , Veronika Rockova

Thompson sampling is a popular algorithm for solving multi-armed bandit problems, and has been applied in a wide range of applications, from website design to portfolio optimization. In such applications, however, the number of choices (or…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-19 Simon Mak , Yuanshuo Zhou , Lavonne Hoang , C. F. Jeff Wu

This paper proposes regenerative particle Thompson sampling (RPTS), a flexible variation of Thompson sampling. Thompson sampling itself is a Bayesian heuristic for solving stochastic bandit problems, but it is hard to implement in practice…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Zeyu Zhou , Bruce Hajek , Nakjung Choi , Anwar Walid

Much of the recent literature on bandit learning focuses on algorithms that aim to converge on an optimal action. One shortcoming is that this orientation does not account for time sensitivity, which can play a crucial role when learning an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-09 Daniel Russo , Benjamin Van Roy

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-31 Yu-Guan Hsieh , Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan , Branislav Kveton , Patrick Blöbaum

In this paper, we introduce and analyze a variant of the Thompson sampling (TS) algorithm for contextual bandits. At each round, traditional TS requires samples from the current posterior distribution, which is usually intractable. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-23 Pierre Clavier , Tom Huix , Alain Durmus

Thompson sampling (TS) has optimal regret and excellent empirical performance in multi-armed bandit problems. Yet, in Bayesian optimization, TS underperforms popular acquisition functions (e.g., EI, UCB). TS samples arms according to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-02 David Sweet

A fundamental challenge for any intelligent system is prediction: given some inputs, can you predict corresponding outcomes? Most work on supervised learning has focused on producing accurate marginal predictions for each input. However, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Zheng Wen , Ian Osband , Chao Qin , Xiuyuan Lu , Morteza Ibrahimi , Vikranth Dwaracherla , Mohammad Asghari , Benjamin Van Roy

Autoregressive neural language models (LMs) generate a probability distribution over tokens at each time step given a prompt. In this work, we attempt to systematically understand the probability distributions that LMs can produce, showing…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Haojin Wang , Zining Zhu , Freda Shi

Dealing with massive data is a challenging task for machine learning. An important aspect of machine learning is function approximation. In the context of massive data, some of the commonly used tools for this purpose are sparsity,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Hrushikesh N Mhaskar

Thompson Sampling, one of the oldest heuristics for solving multi-armed bandits, has recently been shown to demonstrate state-of-the-art performance. The empirical success has led to great interests in theoretical understanding of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-10-29 Lihong Li

Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-09-24 Pedro A. Ortega , Daniel A. Braun

Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) is a extremely powerful paradigm used to solve equations encountered in scientific computing applications. An important part of the procedure is the minimization of the equation residual which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Gabriel Turinici

We investigate finite stochastic partial monitoring, which is a general model for sequential learning with limited feedback. While Thompson sampling is one of the most promising algorithms on a variety of online decision-making problems,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-11 Taira Tsuchiya , Junya Honda , Masashi Sugiyama