Related papers: Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
We implemented a dynamic agent-based network model to simulate the spread of mpox in a United States-based MSM population. This model allowed us to implement data-informed dynamic network evolution to simulate realistic disease spreading…
The recent outbreak of the MPox virus has resulted in a tremendous increase in the usage of Twitter. Prior works in this area of research have primarily focused on the sentiment analysis and content analysis of these Tweets, and the few…
In May 2022, mpox (formerly monkeypox) spread to non-endemic countries rapidly. Human judgment is a forecasting approach that has been sparsely evaluated during the beginning of an outbreak. We collected -- between May 19, 2022 and July 31,…
Background: Although the outbreak of human monkeypox (mpox) caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) has slowed down around the world, little is known about the short-term dynamics of this disease. This limited information highlights the…
The spread of infectious diseases often concentrates within specific subgroups of a broader population. For instance, during recent mpox outbreaks in non-endemic countries, transmission primarily affected men who have sex with men (MSM).…
A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor current trends in transmission and associated healthcare burden. Here we present a…
Artificial Intelligence applications have shown promise in the management of pandemics and have been widely used to assist the identification, classification, and diagnosis of medical images. In response to the global outbreak of Monkeypox…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
Mpox (formerly monkeypox) is a zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus closely related to variola and remains a significant global public health concern. During outbreaks, social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) can both inform…
This work is motivated by an original dataset of reported mumps cases across nine regions of England, and focuses on the modeling of temporal dynamics and time-varying dependency patterns between the observed time series. The goal is to…
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time. We propose a nowcasting…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…
COVID19 was first reported in England at the end of January 2020, and by mid-June over 150,000 cases were reported. We assume that, similarly to influenza-like illnesses, people who suffer from COVID19 may query for their symptoms prior to…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
Governments around the world continue to act to contain and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to continuously adapt policies and social distancing measures depending on the…
The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…
Nowadays, social media is the main tool in our new lives. The outbreak news and all related obtained from social media, and mob events affect the of spread these news fast. Recently, epidemiological models to study disease spread and…