Related papers: Forecasting the Turkish Lira Exchange Rates throug…
This study analyzes the impacts of exchange rate and inflation on exports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1995-2023 were used in the analysis. The Johansen cointegration analysis and Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) method were employed…
The development of artificial intelligence has made significant contributions to the financial sector. One of the main interests of investors is price predictions. Technical and fundamental analyses, as well as econometric analyses, are…
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of…
In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian non-linear time series framework, our modeling…
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to…
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial…
In todays global economy, accuracy in predicting macro-economic parameters such as the foreign the exchange rate or at least estimating the trend correctly is of key importance for any future investment. In recent times, the use of…
The prediction of foreign exchange rates, such as the US Dollar (USD) to Bangladeshi Taka (BDT), plays a pivotal role in global financial markets, influencing trade, investments, and economic stability. This study leverages historical…
Understanding the stochastic behavior of currency exchange rates is critical for assessing financial stability and anticipating market transitions. In this study, we investigate the empirical dynamics of the USD exchange rate in three…
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point…
New fast estimation methods stemming from control theory lead to a fresh look at time series, which bears some resemblance to "technical analysis". The results are applied to a typical object of financial engineering, namely the forecast of…
We analyze tick data of yen-dollar exchange with a focus on its up and down movement. We show that there exists a rather particular conditional probability structure with such high frequency data. This result provides us with evidence to…
Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies…
It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated electricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive market area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable…
We study the tick dynamical behavior of the yen-dollar exchange rate using the rescaled range analysis in financial market. It is found that the multifractal Hurst exponents with the short and long-run memory effects can be obtained from…
A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density…
In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, and no foreign exchange. Over the past twenty-five years, the way the market has performed those tasks has changed enormously. The…
Properties of low-variability periods in the time series are analysed. The theoretical approach is used to show the relationship between the multi-scaling of low-variability periods and multi-affinity of the time series. It is shown that…
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of…
We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility…