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We consider how to make probability forecasts of binary labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous gambling strategy used for detecting disagreement between the forecasts and the actual labels, there exists a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Vladimir Vovk , Akimichi Takemura , Glenn Shafer

This paper introduces a novel approach to budgeted online active learning from finite-horizon data streams with extremely limited labeling budgets. In agricultural applications, such streams might include daily weather data over a growing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Kristen Goebel , William Solow , Paola Pesantez-Cabrera , Markus Keller , Alan Fern

Most methods for decision-theoretic online learning are based on the Hedge algorithm, which takes a parameter called the learning rate. In most previous analyses the learning rate was carefully tuned to obtain optimal worst-case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-04 Tim van Erven , Peter Grünwald , Wouter M. Koolen , Steven de Rooij

Sequential prediction problems such as imitation learning, where future observations depend on previous predictions (actions), violate the common i.i.d. assumptions made in statistical learning. This leads to poor performance in theory and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Stephane Ross , Geoffrey J. Gordon , J. Andrew Bagnell

The success of neural networks comes hand in hand with a desire for more interpretability. We focus on text classifiers and make them more interpretable by having them provide a justification, a rationale, for their predictions. We approach…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Jasmijn Bastings , Wilker Aziz , Ivan Titov

We study online adversarial regression with convex losses against a rich class of continuous yet highly irregular prediction rules, modeled by Besov spaces $B\_{pq}^s$ with general parameters $1 \leq p,q \leq \infty$ and smoothness $s >…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Paul Liautaud , Pierre Gaillard , Olivier Wintenberger

We give a randomized online algorithm that guarantees near-optimal $\widetilde O(\sqrt T)$ expected swap regret against any sequence of $T$ adaptively chosen Lipschitz convex losses on the unit interval. This improves the previous best…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Lunjia Hu , Jon Schneider , Yifan Wu

The cost and scarcity of fully supervised labels in statistical machine learning encourage using partially labeled data for model validation as a cheaper and more accessible alternative. Effectively collecting and leveraging weakly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-16 Maxime Cauchois , John Duchi

One of the most common machine learning setups is logistic regression. In many classification models, including neural networks, the final prediction is obtained by applying a logistic link function to a linear score. In binary logistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Avrajit Ghosh , Bin Yu , Manfred Warmuth , Peter Bartlett

We consider the problem setting of prediction with expert advice with possibly heavy-tailed losses, i.e. the only assumption on the losses is an upper bound on their second moments, denoted by $\theta$. We develop adaptive algorithms that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Antoine Moulin , Emmanuel Esposito , Dirk van der Hoeven

We are interested in probabilistic prediction in online settings in which data does not follow a probability distribution. Our work seeks to achieve two goals: (1) producing valid probabilities that accurately reflect model confidence; and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

We consider the problem of constructing probabilistic predictions that lead to accurate decisions when employed by downstream users to inform actions. For a single decision maker, designing an optimal predictor is equivalent to minimizing a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Isaac Gibbs , Ryan J. Tibshirani

This paper proposes a novel and efficient method for Learning from Label Proportions (LLP), whose goal is to train a classifier only by using the class label proportions of instance sets, called bags. We propose a novel LLP method based on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-20 Shinnosuke Matsuo , Ryoma Bise , Seiichi Uchida , Daiki Suehiro

We study online active learning for classifying streaming instances within the framework of statistical learning theory. At each time, the learner either queries the label of the current instance or predicts the label based on past seen…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Boshuang Huang , Sudeep Salgia , Qing Zhao

We address the problem of predicting the labeling of a graph in an online setting when the labeling is changing over time. We present an algorithm based on a specialist approach; we develop the machinery of cluster specialists which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-18 Mark Herbster , James Robinson

We study the effectiveness of stochastic side information in deterministic online learning scenarios. We propose a forecaster to predict a deterministic sequence where its performance is evaluated against an expert class. We assume that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Junzhang Jia , Xuetong Wu , Jingge Zhu , Jamie Evans

We consider active learning for binary classification in the agnostic pool-based setting. The vast majority of works in active learning in the agnostic setting are inspired by the CAL algorithm where each query is uniformly sampled from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-17 Julian Katz-Samuels , Jifan Zhang , Lalit Jain , Kevin Jamieson

We consider online learning problems in the realizable setting, where there is a zero-loss solution, and propose new Differentially Private (DP) algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret bounds. For the problem of online prediction from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-01 Hilal Asi , Vitaly Feldman , Tomer Koren , Kunal Talwar

We consider prediction with expert advice for strongly convex and bounded losses, and investigate trade-offs between regret and "variance" (i.e., squared difference of learner's predictions and best expert predictions). With $K$ experts,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Dirk van der Hoeven , Nikita Zhivotovskiy , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

We address the problem of learning in an online setting where the learner repeatedly observes features, selects among a set of actions, and receives reward for the action taken. We provide the first efficient algorithm with an optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-06-17 Miroslav Dudik , Daniel Hsu , Satyen Kale , Nikos Karampatziakis , John Langford , Lev Reyzin , Tong Zhang