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We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-12-07 Giulio Cimini , Tiziano Squartini , Diego Garlaschelli , Andrea Gabrielli

Modeling and simulation are widely used in cybersecurity research to assess cyber threats, evaluate defense mechanisms, and analyze vulnerabilities. However, the diversity of application areas, the variety of cyberattacks scenarios, and the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Luca Serena , Gabriele D'Angelo , Stefano Ferretti , Moreno Marzolla

Prior work has extensively studied misinformation related to news, politics, and health, however, misinformation can also be about technological topics. While less controversial, such misinformation can severely impact companies'…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-06-19 Mohit Singhal , Nihal Kumarswamy , Shreyasi Kinhekar , Shirin Nilizadeh

The assessment of cyber risk plays a crucial role for cybersecurity management, and has become a compulsory task for certain types of companies and organizations. This makes the demand for reliable cyber risk assessment tools continuously…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-06-24 Massimo Battaglioni , Giulia Rafaiani , Franco Chiaraluce , Marco Baldi

We propose a distributional framework for benchmarking socio-technical risks of foundation models with quantified statistical significance. Our approach hinges on a new statistical relative testing based on first and second order stochastic…

This study examines the strategic role of cybersecurity based on survey data from 1,083 managers across Europe, the UK, and the United States. The findings indicate growing recognition of cybersecurity as a source of competitive advantage,…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Silvia Tedeschi , Giacomo Marzi , Marco Balzano , Gabriele Costa

Both industry and academia have made considerable progress in developing trustworthy and responsible machine learning (ML) systems. While critical concepts like fairness and explainability are often addressed, the safety of systems is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-08 Patrick Kaiser , Christoph Kern , David Rügamer

In this study, we develop a novel quantum machine learning (QML) framework to analyze cybersecurity vulnerabilities using data from the 2022 CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog, which includes detailed information on vulnerability…

Ratio statistics--such as relative risk and odds ratios--play a central role in hypothesis testing, model evaluation, and decision-making across many areas of machine learning, including causal inference and fairness analysis. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-28 Tomer Shoham , Katrina Ligettt

Background. In recent years, cyber security security user studies have been appraised in meta-research, mostly focusing on the completeness of their statistical inferences and the fidelity of their statistical reporting. However, estimates…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Thomas Groß

It is very challenging to predict the cost of a cyber incident owing to the complex nature of cyber risk. However, it is inevitable for insurance companies who offer cyber insurance policies. The time to identifying an incident and the time…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-27 Maochao Xu , Quynh Nhu Nguyen

Clinical risk prediction is a valuable tool for guiding healthcare interventions toward those most likely to benefit. Yet, evaluating the pairing of a risk prediction model with an intervention using randomized controlled trials presents…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-31 Valerie Odeh-Couvertier , Gabriel Zayas-Caban , Brian Patterson , Amy Cochran

Risk assessment plays a crucial role in ensuring the security and resilience of modern computer systems. Existing methods for conducting risk assessments often suffer from tedious and time-consuming processes, making it challenging to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-07-27 Simon Unger , Ektor Arzoglou , Markus Heinrich , Dirk Scheuermann , Stefan Katzenbeisser

Prior to clinical applications, it is critical that risk prediction models are evaluated in independent studies that did not contribute to model development. While prospective cohort studies provide a natural setting for model validation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-13 Parichoy Pal Choudhury , Anil K. Chaturvedi , Nilanjan Chatterjee

When a threat is observed, one of the most important challenges is to choose the most appropriate and adequate timely decisions in response to the current and near future situation in order to have the least consequences and costs. Making…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-05-01 Mahdieh Safarzadehvahed , Farzaneh Abazari , Afsaneh Madani , Fatemeh Shabani

While the last few decades have witnessed a huge body of work devoted to inference and learning in distributed and decentralized setups, much of this work assumes a non-adversarial setting in which individual nodes---apart from occasional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-03 Zhixiong Yang , Arpita Gang , Waheed U. Bajwa

In the design of software and cyber-physical systems, security is often perceived as a qualitative need, but can only be attained quantitatively. Especially when distributed components are involved, it is hard to predict and confront all…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-03-30 Roberto Vigo , Flemming Nielson , Hanne Riis Nielson

Considering the ever-evolving threat landscape and rapid changes in software development, we propose a risk assessment framework called SAFER (Software Analysis Framework for Evaluating Risk). This framework is based on the necessity of a…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Sarah Ali Siddiqui , Chandra Thapa , Rayne Holland , Wei Shao , Seyit Camtepe

In the past decades, most work in the area of data analysis and machine learning was focused on optimizing predictive models and getting better results than what was possible with existing models. To what extent the metrics with which such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Nicolas Dewolf

Several approaches have been used to assess the performance of cyberphysical systems and their exposure to various types of risks. Such assessments have become increasingly important as autonomous attackers ramp up the frequency, duration…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Alexandre Ligo , Alexander Kott , Igor Linkov