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Related papers: Reevaluating the Taylor Rule with Machine Learning

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Online learning updates models incrementally with new data, avoiding large storage requirements and costly model recalculations. In this paper, we introduce "OLR-WA; OnLine Regression with Weighted Average", a novel and versatile…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-18 Mohammad Abu-Shaira , Alejandro Rodriguez , Greg Speegle , Victor Sheng , Ishfaq Ahmad

Viewing a yield curve as a sparse collection of measurements on a latent continuous random function allows us to model it statistically as a sparsely observed functional time series. Doing so, we use the state-of-the-art methods in…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-07 Tomáš Rubín

Motivated by machine learning, we introduce a novel method for randomly generating inflationary potentials. Namely, we treat the Taylor coefficients of the potential as weights in a single-layer neural network and use gradient ascent to…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2019-02-27 Tom Rudelius

Designing a competent meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) algorithm in terms of data usage remains a central challenge to be tackled for its successful real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a sample-efficient meta-RL…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Jaeuk Shin , Giho Kim , Howon Lee , Joonho Han , Insoon Yang

We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-03 Thomas Hasenzagl , Filippo Pellegrino , Lucrezia Reichlin , Giovanni Ricco

This paper introduces a new data analysis method for big data using a newly defined regression model named multiple model linear regression(MMLR), which separates input datasets into subsets and construct local linear regression models of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-25 Bohan Lyu , Jianzhong Li

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

Multifractal theory provides a new spatial analytical tool to describe urban form and growth, but many basic problems remain to be solved. Among various pending issues, the most significant one is how to obtain proper multifractal dimension…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-12-19 Linshan Huang , Yanguang Chen

In this paper the orthogonal impulse response functions (OIRF) are studied in the non-standard, though quite common, case where the covariance of the error vector is not constant in time. The usual approach for taking into account such…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-01 Valentin Patilea , Hamdi Raïssi

We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-09 Jinjun Liu , Ming-Yen Cheng

Despite their popularity, machine learning predictions are sensitive to potential unobserved predictors. This paper proposes a general algorithm that assesses how the omission of an unobserved variable with high explanatory power could…

The objective of this work is to improve the accuracy of building demand forecasting. This is a more challenging task than grid level forecasting. For the said purpose, we develop a new technique called recurrent transform learning (RTL).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-12 Megha Gupta , Angshul Majumdar

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-17 Julien Hambuckers , Marie Kratz , Antoine Usseglio-Carleve

Transfer learning (TL) has emerged as a powerful tool for improving estimation and prediction performance by leveraging information from related datasets, with the offset TL (O-TL) being a prevailing implementation. In this paper, we adapt…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-12 Yuping Yang , Zhiyang Zhou

We propose a novel approach to elicit the weight of a potentially non-stationary regressor in the consistent and oracle-efficient estimation of autoregressive models using the adaptive Lasso. The enhanced weight builds on a statistic that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Thilo Reinschlüssel , Martin C. Arnold

This paper considers a linear regression model with an endogenous regressor which arises from a nonlinear transformation of a latent variable. It is shown that the corresponding coefficient can be consistently estimated without external…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-08 Jörg Breitung , Alexander Mayer , Dominik Wied

In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…

Traditional power flow methods often adopt certain assumptions designed for passive balanced distribution systems, thus lacking practicality for unbalanced operation. Moreover, their computation accuracy and efficiency are heavily subject…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-30 Sungjoo Chung , Ying Zhang , Zhaoyu Wang , Fei Ding

We present a nonparametric method for estimating the value and several derivatives of an unknown, sufficiently smooth real-valued function of real-valued arguments from a finite sample of points, where both the function arguments and the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-04-16 Jobst Heitzig

We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-09 Annika Camehl , Tomasz Woźniak