Related papers: Reevaluating the Taylor Rule with Machine Learning
Online learning updates models incrementally with new data, avoiding large storage requirements and costly model recalculations. In this paper, we introduce "OLR-WA; OnLine Regression with Weighted Average", a novel and versatile…
Viewing a yield curve as a sparse collection of measurements on a latent continuous random function allows us to model it statistically as a sparsely observed functional time series. Doing so, we use the state-of-the-art methods in…
Motivated by machine learning, we introduce a novel method for randomly generating inflationary potentials. Namely, we treat the Taylor coefficients of the potential as weights in a single-layer neural network and use gradient ascent to…
Designing a competent meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) algorithm in terms of data usage remains a central challenge to be tackled for its successful real-world applications. In this paper, we propose a sample-efficient meta-RL…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
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Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…
Multifractal theory provides a new spatial analytical tool to describe urban form and growth, but many basic problems remain to be solved. Among various pending issues, the most significant one is how to obtain proper multifractal dimension…
In this paper the orthogonal impulse response functions (OIRF) are studied in the non-standard, though quite common, case where the covariance of the error vector is not constant in time. The usual approach for taking into account such…
We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…
Despite their popularity, machine learning predictions are sensitive to potential unobserved predictors. This paper proposes a general algorithm that assesses how the omission of an unobserved variable with high explanatory power could…
The objective of this work is to improve the accuracy of building demand forecasting. This is a more challenging task than grid level forecasting. For the said purpose, we develop a new technique called recurrent transform learning (RTL).…
We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…
Transfer learning (TL) has emerged as a powerful tool for improving estimation and prediction performance by leveraging information from related datasets, with the offset TL (O-TL) being a prevailing implementation. In this paper, we adapt…
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This paper considers a linear regression model with an endogenous regressor which arises from a nonlinear transformation of a latent variable. It is shown that the corresponding coefficient can be consistently estimated without external…
In system identification, estimating parameters of a model using limited observations results in poor identifiability. To cope with this issue, we propose a new method to simultaneously select and estimate sensitive parameters as key model…
Traditional power flow methods often adopt certain assumptions designed for passive balanced distribution systems, thus lacking practicality for unbalanced operation. Moreover, their computation accuracy and efficiency are heavily subject…
We present a nonparametric method for estimating the value and several derivatives of an unknown, sufficiently smooth real-valued function of real-valued arguments from a finite sample of points, where both the function arguments and the…
We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search,…