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Molecular dynamics simulations have become essential in many areas of atomistic modelling from drug discovery to materials science. They provide critical atomic-level insights into key dynamical events experiments cannot easily capture.…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-06-14 Tiejun Wei , Balint Dudas , Edina Rosta

The Milestoning method has achieved great success in the calculation of equilibrium kinetic properties such as rate constants from molecular dynamics simulations. The goal of this work is to advance Milestoning into the realm of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-11-03 Gianmarc Grazioli , Ioan Andricioaei

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle , Eric Moulines

A class of algorithms in discrete space and continuous time for Brownian first passage time estimation is considered. A simple algorithm is derived that yields exact mean first passage times (MFPT) for linear potentials in one dimension,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-09-29 Artur B. Adib

The first passage time (FPT) distribution for random walk in complex networks is calculated through an asymptotic analysis. For network with size $N$ and short relaxation time $\tau\ll N$, the computed mean first passage time (MFPT), which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-01-29 Hon Wai Lau , Kwok Yip Szeto

The first-passage time (FPT) is the time it takes a system variable to cross a given boundary for the first time. In the context of Markov networks, the FPT is the time a random walker takes to reach a particular node (target) by hopping…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-22 Jaroslav Albert

The determination of the mean first passage time (MFPT) for a Brownian particle in a bounded 2-D domain containing small absorbing traps is a fundamental problem with biophysical applications. The average MFPT is the expected capture time…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-06-24 Sarafa A. Iyaniwura , Tony Wong , Colin B. Macdonald , Micheal J. Ward

For predicting the kinetics of nucleic acid reactions, continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used. The rate of a reaction can be obtained through the mean first passage time (MFPT) of its CTMC. However, a typical issue in CTMCs…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-23 Sedigheh Zolaktaf , Frits Dannenberg , Mark Schmidt , Anne Condon , Erik Winfree

The mean first passage time~(MFPT) of random walks is a key quantity characterizing dynamic processes on disordered media. In a random fractal embedded in the Euclidean space, the MFPT is known to obey the power law scaling with the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-12-07 Hyun-Myung Chun , Sungmin Hwang , Byungnam Kahng , Heiko Rieger , Jae Dong Noh

We propose an analytical approach to study non-Markov random walks by employing an exact enumeration method. Using the method, we derive an exact expansion for the first-passage time (FPT) distribution for any continuous, differentiable…

Traditional MCMC algorithms are computationally intensive and do not scale well to large data. In particular, the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm requires passing over the entire dataset to evaluate the likelihood ratio in each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-29 Tung-Yu Wu , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Wing H. Wong

First passage phenomena arise across physics, biology, and finance when stochastic processes first reach a threshold, triggering downstream events. Examples include the irreversible exit from a domain, a biochemical reaction, a financial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-04-06 Maria R. D'Orsogna , Alan E. Lindsay , Thomas Hillen

How long does it take a random walker to reach a given target point? This quantity, known as a first passage time (FPT), has led to a growing number of theoretical investigations over the last decade1. The importance of FPTs originates from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 S. Condamin , O. Benichou , V. Tejedor , R. Voituriez , J. Klafter

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou , Hamed Nikbakht , Elsayed Eshra

For many stochastic dynamic systems, the Mean First Passage Time (MFPT) is a useful concept, which gives expected time before a state of interest. This work is an extension of MFPT in several ways. (1) We show that for some systems the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-12-23 Cenk Oguz Saglam , Katie Byl

In biochemical reaction networks, the first passage time (FPT) of a reaction quantifies the time it takes for the reaction to first occur, from the initial state. While the mean FPT historically served as a summary metric, a far more…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2025-03-07 Changqian Rao , David Waxman , Wei Lin , Zhuoyi Song

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-17 Tobias Grafke , Tobias Schäfer , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

We introduce a new Forward-Flux Sampling in Time (FFST) algorithm to efficiently measure transition times in rare-event processes in non-equilibrium systems, and apply it to study the first-order (discontinuous) kinetic transition in the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 David A. Adams , Robert M. Ziff , Leonard M. Sander

Relatively general techniques for computing mean first-passage time (MFPT) of random walks on networks with a specific property are very useful, since a universal method for calculating MFPT on general graphs is not available because of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-10-01 Yuan Lin , Bin Wu , Zhongzhi Zhang

The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Sean D Lawley