Related papers: Deep Learning Enhanced Realized GARCH
This paper introduces a novel multivariate volatility modeling framework, named Long Short-Term Memory enhanced BEKK (LSTM-BEKK), that integrates deep learning into multivariate GARCH processes. By combining the flexibility of recurrent…
In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…
This paper proposes an innovative threshold measurement equation to be employed in a Realized-GARCH framework. The proposed framework incorporates a nonlinear threshold regression specification to consider the leverage effect and model the…
Volatility, which indicates the dispersion of returns, is a crucial measure of risk and is hence used extensively for pricing and discriminating between different financial investments. As a result, accurate volatility prediction receives…
Realised volatility has become increasingly prominent in volatility forecasting due to its ability to capture intraday price fluctuations. With a growing variety of realised volatility estimators, each with unique advantages and…
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…
Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…
We propose a novel class of multivariate GARCH models that incorporate realized measures of volatility and correlations. The key innovation is an unconstrained vector parametrization of the conditional correlation matrix, which enables the…
In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…
Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…
The realized GARCH framework is extended to incorporate the two-sided Weibull distribution, for the purpose of volatility and tail risk forecasting in a financial time series. Further, the realized range, as a competitor for realized…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…
In this paper, we propose the realized Hyperbolic GARCH model for the joint-dynamics of lowfrequency returns and realized measures that generalizes the realized GARCH model of Hansen et al.(2012) as well as the FLoGARCH model introduced by…
Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…
This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…