Related papers: Market-Based Probability of Stock Returns
We show that the moments of the distribution of historic stock returns are in excellent agreement with the Heston model and not with the multiplicative model, which predicts power-law tails of volatility and stock returns. We also show that…
In a discrete time stochastic model of a pension investment funds market Gajek and Kaluszka(2000a) have provided a definition of the average rate of return which satisfies a set of economic correctnes postulates. In this paper the average…
What return should you expect when you take on a given amount of risk? How should that return depend upon other people's behavior? What principles can you use to answer these questions? In this paper, we approach these topics by exploring…
This paper proposes a theory of stock market predictability patterns based on a model of heterogeneous beliefs. In a discrete finite time framework, some agents receive news about an asset's fundamental value through a noisy signal. The…
Standard quantitative models of the stock market predict a log-normal distribution for stock returns (Bachelier 1900, Osborne 1959), but it is recognised (Fama 1965) that empirical data, in comparison with a Gaussian, exhibit leptokurtosis…
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for the study of crossing or first-passage time events of non-Gaussian correlated dynamics mainly because large data sets are available. Tick-by-tick data of six futures markets are herein considered…
Building on a prominent agent-based model, we present a new structural stochastic volatility asset pricing model of fundamentalists vs. chartists where the prices are determined based on excess demand. Specifically, this allows for…
Changes in market conditions present challenges for investors as they cause performance to deviate from the ranges predicted by long-term averages of means and covariances. The aim of conditional asset allocation strategies is to overcome…
We extend and test empirically the multifractal model of asset returns based on a multiplicative cascade of volatilities from large to small time scales. The multifractal description of asset fluctuations is generalized into a multivariate…
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a…
In this report, we talked about a new quantitative strategy for choosing the optimal(s) stock(s) to trade. The basic notions are generally very known by the financial community. The key here is to understand 1) the standard score applied to…
This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…
With the good development in the financial industry, the market starts to catch people's eyes, not only by the diversified investing choices ranging from bonds and stocks to futures and options but also by the general "high-risk,…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
Stochastic volatility models describe stock returns $r_t$ as driven by an unobserved process capturing the random dynamics of volatility $v_t$. The present paper quantifies how much information about volatility $v_t$ and future stock…
This paper examines the possibility of using derivative-implied risk premia to explain stock returns. The rapid development of derivative markets has led to the possibility of trading various kinds of risks, such as credit and interest rate…
We analyze correlations among stock returns via a series of widely adopted parameters which we refer to as explanatory variables. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a long only quantitative adaptive technique to construct a…
I demonstrate that with the market return determined by the equilibrium returns of the CAPM, expected returns of an asset are affected by the risks of all assets jointly. Another implication is that the range of feasible market returns will…
We study market-to-book ratios of stocks in the context of Stochastic Portfolio Theory. Functionally generated portfolios that depend on auxiliary economic variables other than relative capitalizations ("sizes") are developed in two ways,…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…