Related papers: Online Statistical Inference for Nonlinear Stochas…

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a stochastic McKean-Vlasov equation, and the associated system of weakly interacting particles. We study two cases: one in which we observe multiple independent trajectories of the…

In this paper, we propose and analyze a trust-region model-based algorithm for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Our framework utilizes random models of an objective function $f(x)$, obtained from stochastic…

Dynamic and evolving operational and economic environments present significant challenges for decision-making. We explore a simulation optimization problem characterized by non-stationary input distributions with regime-switching dynamics…

Let $(X_1,\ldots ,X_n)$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables in $\R^d$, $d\geq 1$, for some function $\varphi:\R^d\r \R$, under regularity conditions, we show that \begin{align*} n^{1/2} \left(n^{-1} \sum_{i=1}^n \frac{\varphi(X_i)}{\w…

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Estimating function inference is indispensable for many common point process models where the joint intensities are tractable while the likelihood function is not. In this paper we establish asymptotic normality of estimating function…

In this work, a generalised version of the central limit theorem is proposed for nonlinear functionals of the empirical measure of i.i.d. random variables, provided that the functional satisfies some regularity assumptions for the…

We consider the estimation of the slope function in functional linear regression, where scalar responses are modeled in dependence of random functions. Cardot and Johannes [J. Multivariate Anal. 101 (2010) 395-408] have shown that a…

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory.…

We introduce a novel and efficient algorithm called the stochastic approximate gradient descent (SAGD), as an alternative to the stochastic gradient descent for cases where unbiased stochastic gradients cannot be trivially obtained.…

This paper studies simultaneous inference of conditional distributions in nonlinear time series from a sieve M-regression perspective. Existing literature on sieve M-regression has primarily focused on pointwise asymptotics, leaving the…

This paper investigates the problem of online statistical inference of model parameters in stochastic optimization problems via the Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm with random search directions. We first present the asymptotic distribution for…

Counterfactual inference aims to answer retrospective "what if" questions and thus belongs to the most fine-grained type of inference in Pearl's causality ladder. Existing methods for counterfactual inference with continuous outcomes aim at…

This paper introduces an iterative algorithm for training nonparametric additive models that enjoys favorable memory storage and computational requirements. The algorithm can be viewed as the functional counterpart of stochastic gradient…

In this paper, we consider a partially linear model of the form $Y_t=X_t^{\tau}\theta_0+g(V_t)+\epsilon_t$, $t=1,...,n$, where $\{V_t\}$ is a $\beta$ null recurrent Markov chain, $\{X_t\}$ is a sequence of either strictly stationary or…

In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…

To answer questions of "causes of effects", the probability of necessity is introduced for assessing whether or not an observed outcome was caused by an earlier treatment. However, the statistical inference for probability of necessity is…

We investigate partially identifiable queries in a class of causal models. We focus on acyclic Structural Causal Models that are quasi-Markovian (that is, each endogenous variable is connected with at most one exogenous confounder). We look…

Probabilistic graphical models that encode an underlying Markov random field are fundamental building blocks of generative modeling to learn latent representations in modern multivariate data sets with complex dependency structures. Among…