Related papers: Quantiled conditional variance, skewness, and kurt…
A multi-factor extension of the Hobson and Rogers (HR) model, incorporating a quadratic variance function (QHR model), is proposed and analysed. The QHR model allows for greater flexibility in defining the moving average filter while…
Multivariant time series (MTS) data are usually incomplete in real scenarios, and imputing the incomplete MTS is practically important to facilitate various time series mining tasks. Recently, diffusion model-based MTS imputation methods…
Many problems can be formulated as high-dimensional integrals of discontinuous functions that exhibit significant boundary growth, challenging the error analysis and applications of randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods. This paper…
Although conformal prediction provides robust marginal coverage guarantees, achieving reliable conditional coverage for specific inputs remains challenging. While exact distribution-free conditional coverage is impossible with finite…
Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to an ad-hoc operating point,…
The Multi-Kink Quantile Regression (MKQR) model is an important tool for analyzing data with heterogeneous conditional distributions, especially when quantiles of response variable are of interest, due to its robustness to outliers and…
In this paper we study from a numerical analysis perspective the Fractional Step Kinetic Monte Carlo (FS-KMC) algorithms proposed in [1] for the parallel simulation of spatially distributed particle systems on a lattice. FS-KMC are…
Varying-coefficient functional linear models consider the relationship between a response and a predictor, where the response depends not only the predictor but also an exogenous variable. It then accounts for the relation of the predictors…
We propose an estimation method for the conditional mode when the conditioning variable is high-dimensional. In the proposed method, we first estimate the conditional density by solving quantile regressions multiple times. We then estimate…
Quantile regression (QR) is becoming increasingly popular due to its relevance in many scientific investigations. There is a great amount of work about linear and nonlinear QR models. Specifically, nonparametric estimation of the…
When constructing parametric models to predict the cost of future claims, several important details have to be taken into account: (i) models should be designed to accommodate deductibles, policy limits, and coinsurance factors, (ii)…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid when integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single…
Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…
We propose a seasonal AR model with time-varying parameter processes in both the regular and seasonal parameters. The model is parameterized to guarantee stability at every time point and can accommodate multiple seasonal periods. The time…
We consider a discrete time stochastic model with infinite variance and study the mean estimation problem as in Wang and Ramdas (2023). We refine the Catoni-type confidence sequence (abbr. CS) and use an idea of Bhatt et al. (2022) to…
In this article, we present a novel approach to multivariate probabilistic forecasting. Our approach is based on an extension of single-output quantile regression (QR) to multivariate-targets, called quantile surfaces (QS). QS uses a simple…
In this paper we survey and unify a large class or $L$-functionals of the conditional distribution of the response variable in regression models. This includes robust measures of location, scale, skewness, and heavytailedness of the…
Distortion Risk Measures (DRMs) capture risk preferences in decision-making and serve as general criteria for managing uncertainty. This paper proposes gradient descent algorithms for DRM optimization based on two dual representations: the…
The impact of the third (skewness) and fourth (kurtosis) reduced centered moments on the statistical modeling of E1 lines in complex atomic spectra is investigated through the use of Gram-Charlier, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Generalized…
We propose a sampling-based simulation for fault-tolerant quantum error correction under coherent noise. A mixture of incoherent and coherent noise, possibly due to over-rotation, is decomposed into Clifford channels with a quasiprobability…