Related papers: Bi-objective risk-averse facility location using a…
We study a risk-constrained version of the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, where the risk measure considered is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We propose two algorithms that obtain a locally risk-optimal policy by employing four…
We develop a risk-averse safety analysis method for stochastic systems on discrete infinite time horizons. Our method quantifies the notion of risk for a control system in terms of the severity of a harmful random outcome in a fraction of…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
Copula-based Conditional Value at Risk (CCVaR) is defined as an alternative version of the classical Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for multivariate random vectors intended to be real-valued. We aim to generalize CCVaR to several…
This article develops a new algorithm named TTRISK to solve high-dimensional risk-averse optimization problems governed by differential equations (ODEs and/or PDEs) under uncertainty. As an example, we focus on the so-called Conditional…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a leading tail-risk measure in finance, central to both regulatory and portfolio optimization frameworks. Classical estimation of CVaR and its gradients relies on Monte Carlo simulation, incurring…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) precisely characterizes the influence that rare, catastrophic events can exert over decisions. Such characterizations are important for both normal decision-making and for psychiatric conditions such as…
In this work, we address risk-averse Bayes-adaptive reinforcement learning. We pose the problem of optimising the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the total return in Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes (MDPs). We show that a policy…
Chance-constrained programs (CCPs) provide a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but their nonconvex feasible regions make them computationally challenging. A widely used convex inner approximation replaces…
Risk sensitive decision making finds important applications in current day use cases. Existing risk measures consider a single or finite collection of random variables, which do not account for the asymptotic behaviour of underlying…
We consider a multiperiod stochastic capacitated facility location problem under uncertain demand and budget in each period. Using a scenario tree representation of the uncertainties, we formulate a multistage stochastic integer program to…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…
In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…
We study the optimal portfolio allocation problem from a Bayesian perspective using value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measures. By applying the posterior predictive distribution for the future portfolio…
In this work, we tackle the problem of minimising the Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of output quantities of complex differential models with random input data, using gradient-based approaches in combination with the Multi-Level Monte…
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 highlighted the crucial role systemic risk plays in ensuring stability of financial markets. Accurate assessment of systemic risk would enable regulators to introduce suitable policies to mitigate…
Digital twin models allow us to continuously assess the possible risk of damage and failure of a complex system. Yet high-fidelity digital twin models can be computationally expensive, making quick-turnaround assessment challenging. Towards…
In this paper, we consider the nonconvex minimization problem of the value-at-risk (VaR) that arises from financial risk analysis. By considering this problem as a special linear program with linear complementarity constraints (a bilevel…
We introduce a fast and scalable method for solving quadratic programs with conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. While these problems can be formulated as standard quadratic programs, the number of variables and constraints grows…
Mainstream approximate action-value iteration reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms suffer from overestimation bias, leading to suboptimal policies in high-variance stochastic environments. Quantile-based action-value iteration methods…