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Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), despite their tremendous success in recent years, could still cast doubts on their predictions due to the intrinsic uncertainty associated with their learning process. Ensemble techniques and post-hoc…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Chunwei Ma , Ziyun Huang , Jiayi Xian , Mingchen Gao , Jinhui Xu

Neural Networks have high accuracy in solving problems where it is difficult to detect patterns or create a logical model. However, these algorithms sometimes return wrong solutions, which become problematic in high-risk domains like…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Miguel N. Font , José L. Jorro-Aragoneses , Carlos M. Alaíz

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji

Deep learning has revolutionized modern data science. However, how to accurately quantify the uncertainty of predictions from large-scale deep neural networks (DNNs) remains an unresolved issue. To address this issue, we introduce a novel…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-05 Yan Sun , Faming Liang

Recent advances in deep learning have shown that uncertainty estimation is becoming increasingly important in applications such as medical imaging, natural language processing, and autonomous systems. However, accurately quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Jae Myung Kim , Cordelia Schmidt , Bernhard Schölkopf , Zeynep Akata

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, but ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates, known as model calibration, is crucial for their safe and effective deployment. Modern DNNs often suffer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

We address the problem of uncertainty calibration. While standard deep neural networks typically yield uncalibrated predictions, calibrated confidence scores that are representative of the true likelihood of a prediction can be achieved…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-24 Christian Tomani , Sebastian Gruber , Muhammed Ebrar Erdem , Daniel Cremers , Florian Buettner

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Calibrating deep learning models to yield uncertainty-aware predictions is crucial as deep neural networks get increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications. While existing post-hoc calibration methods achieve impressive results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-06 Christian Tomani , Futa Waseda , Yuesong Shen , Daniel Cremers

Neural networks have proven successful at learning from complex data distributions by acting as universal function approximators. However, they are often overconfident in their predictions, which leads to inaccurate and miscalibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-23 Jeffrey Willette , Juho Lee , Sung Ju Hwang

It is known that neural networks have the problem of being over-confident when directly using the output label distribution to generate uncertainty measures. Existing methods mainly resolve this issue by retraining the entire model to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Maohao Shen , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Soumya Ghosh , Subhro Das , Gregory Wornell

Pruning neural networks has proven to be a successful approach to increase the efficiency and reduce the memory storage of deep learning models without compromising performance. Previous literature has shown that it is possible to achieve a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Joaquin Alvarez

Deep neural networks are prone to overconfident predictions on outliers. Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles have both been shown to mitigate this problem to some extent. In this work, we aim to combine the benefits of the two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Runa Eschenhagen , Erik Daxberger , Philipp Hennig , Agustinus Kristiadi

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-14 Jooyoung Moon , Jihyo Kim , Younghak Shin , Sangheum Hwang

Deep neural networks (DNN) are prone to miscalibrated predictions, often exhibiting a mismatch between the predicted output and the associated confidence scores. Contemporary model calibration techniques mitigate the problem of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Rishabh Patra , Tirtharaj Dash , Gautam Shroff , Lovekesh Vig

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu
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