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Related papers: One-Shot Federated Conformal Prediction

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Federated learning provides a framework to address the challenges of distributed computing, data ownership and privacy over a large number of distributed clients with low computational and communication capabilities. In this paper, we study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Adarsh Barik , Jean Honorio

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Jake C. Snell , Thomas L. Griffiths

Making predictions robust is an important challenge. A separate challenge in federated learning (FL) is to reduce the number of communication rounds, particularly since doing so reduces performance in heterogeneous data settings. To tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Mohsin Hasan , Zehao Zhang , Kaiyang Guo , Mahdi Karami , Guojun Zhang , Xi Chen , Pascal Poupart

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Federated learning has attracted considerable interest for collaborative machine learning in healthcare to leverage separate institutional datasets while maintaining patient privacy. However, additional challenges such as poor calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Charles Lu , Jayasheree Kalpathy-Cramer

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan

Conformal predictive systems are sets of predictive distributions with theoretical out-of-sample calibration guarantees. The calibration guarantees are typically that the set of predictions contains a forecast distribution whose prediction…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Sam Allen , Enrico Pescara , Johanna Ziegel

In supervised learning, including regression and classification, conformal methods provide prediction sets for the outcome/label with finite sample coverage for any machine learning predictor. We consider here the case where such prediction…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Ariane Marandon , Etienne Roquain

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables, existing multivariate methods either impose rigid…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Sacha Braun , Liviu Aolaritei , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

We propose a conformal prediction method for constructing tight simultaneous prediction intervals for multiple, potentially related, numerical outputs given a single input. This method can be combined with any multi-target regression model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-18 Yunjie Fan , Matteo Sesia

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Optimization-based techniques for federated learning (FL) often come with prohibitive communication cost, as high dimensional model parameters need to be communicated repeatedly between server and clients. In this paper, we follow a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Tim d'Hondt , Mykola Pechenizkiy , Robert Peharz

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-05 Bror Hultberg , Dave Zachariah , Antônio H. Ribeiro

While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Guneet S. Dhillon , George Deligiannidis , Tom Rainforth

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

We propose a novel approach to conformal prediction for generative language models (LMs). Standard conformal prediction produces prediction sets -- in place of single predictions -- that have rigorous, statistical performance guarantees. LM…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Victor Quach , Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Adam Yala , Jae Ho Sohn , Tommi S. Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Conformal prediction has emerged as a widely used framework for constructing valid prediction sets in classification and regression tasks. In this work, we extend the split conformal prediction framework to hierarchical classification,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-13 Thomas Mortier , Alireza Javanmardi , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

One-shot Federated Learning (OFL) is a distributed machine learning paradigm that constrains client-server communication to a single round, addressing privacy and communication overhead issues associated with multiple rounds of data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-14 Xiang Liu , Zhenheng Tang , Xia Li , Yijun Song , Sijie Ji , Zemin Liu , Bo Han , Linshan Jiang , Jialin Li

We present a new method for generating confidence sets within the split conformal prediction framework. Our method performs a trainable transformation of any given conformity score to improve conditional coverage while ensuring exact…

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…