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For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

Matrix and tensor completion are frameworks for a wide range of problems, including collaborative filtering, missing data, and image reconstruction. Missing entries are estimated by leveraging an assumption that the matrix or tensor is…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-29 Daniel E. Gilbert , Martin T. Wells

In this paper we extend existing Bayesian methods for variable selection in Gaussian process regression, to select both the regression terms and the active covariates in the spatial correlation structure. We then use the estimated posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-05 Ofir Harari , David M. Steinberg

Spurred on by recent successes in causal inference competitions, Bayesian nonparametric (and high-dimensional) methods have recently seen increased attention in the causal inference literature. In this paper, we present a comprehensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-11 Antonio R. Linero , Joseph L. Antonelli

The Bayesian statistical paradigm uses the language of probability to express uncertainty about the phenomena that generate observed data. Probability distributions thus characterize Bayesian analysis, with the rules of probability used to…

Computation · Statistics 2020-12-08 Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier , Christian P. Robert

Low rank tensor representation underpins much of recent progress in tensor completion. In real applications, however, this approach is confronted with two challenging problems, namely (1) tensor rank determination; (2) handling real tensor…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-08-04 Lei Zhang , Wei Wei , Qinfeng Shi , Chunhua Shen , Anton van den Hengel , Yanning Zhang

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are common in economics. Model averaging is a natural and formal…

Applications · Statistics 2019-02-05 Mark F. J. Steel

Higher-order tensors have received increased attention across science and engineering. While most tensor decomposition methods are developed for a single tensor observation, scientific studies often collect side information, in the form of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Jiaxin Hu , Chanwoo Lee , Miaoyan Wang

Physics increasingly uses Bayesian techniques for systematic data analysis and model-to-data comparison. This paper describes how these methods can be implemented to answer questions of relevance to teaching laboratories. It demonstrates…

Physics Education · Physics 2022-07-21 Matthew Heffernan

We derive an exact and efficient Bayesian regression algorithm for piecewise constant functions of unknown segment number, boundary location, and levels. It works for any noise and segment level prior, e.g. Cauchy which can handle outliers.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter

Deep learning is a form of machine learning for nonlinear high dimensional pattern matching and prediction. By taking a Bayesian probabilistic perspective, we provide a number of insights into more efficient algorithms for optimisation and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-23 Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Due to their great flexibility, nonparametric Bayes methods have proven to be a valuable tool for discovering complicated patterns in data. The term "nonparametric Bayes" suggests that these methods inherit model-free operating…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-04-15 Peter D. Hoff

Bayesian estimation is a powerful theoretical paradigm for the operation of quantum sensors. However, the Bayesian method for statistical inference generally suffers from demanding calibration requirements that have so far restricted its…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-09-22 Samuel P. Nolan , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

We explore the notion of uncertainty in the context of modern abstractive summarization models, using the tools of Bayesian Deep Learning. Our approach approximates Bayesian inference by first extending state-of-the-art summarization models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-04 Alexios Gidiotis , Grigorios Tsoumakas

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-18 Ho Chung Leon Law , Danica J. Sutherland , Dino Sejdinovic , Seth Flaxman

Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-05 Deborah Sulem , Jack Jewson , David Rossell

We provide guarantees for learning latent variable models emphasizing on the overcomplete regime, where the dimensionality of the latent space can exceed the observed dimensionality. In particular, we consider multiview mixtures, spherical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-12-18 Animashree Anandkumar , Rong Ge , Majid Janzamin

We wish to contribute to the discussion of "Comparing Consensus Monte Carlo Strategies for Distributed Bayesian Computation" by offering our views on the current best methods for Bayesian computation, both at big-data scale and with smaller…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-15 David Draper , Alexander Terenin

Bayesian coresets have emerged as a promising approach for implementing scalable Bayesian inference. The Bayesian coreset problem involves selecting a (weighted) subset of the data samples, such that the posterior inference using the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Jacky Y. Zhang , Rajiv Khanna , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Oluwasanmi Koyejo