Related papers: Improving the Arrival Time Estimates of Coronal Ma…
The drag-based model (DBM) for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model which can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the…
A goal of the NASA STEREO mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are energetic storms in the Sun that result in the ejection of large-scale magnetic clouds (MCs) in interplanetary space that contain enhanced magnetic fields with coherently changing field direction. The…
White light images of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are projections on the plane-of-sky (POS). As a result, CME kinematics are subject to projection effects. The error in the true (deprojected) speed of CMEs is one of the main causes of…
The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind…
Simulating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from their origin in active regions (ARs) to their propagation to Earth remains challenging, particularly when aiming to resolve AR scales and employ realistic magnetic field strengths without…
Being able to accurately predict the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth has been a long-standing problem in space weather research and operations. In this study, we use the ELlipse Evolution model based on Heliospheric Images…
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME…
Accurate estimation of propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is crucial for predicting their geoeffectiveness. Stereoscopic techniques to study the kinematics of CMEs generally have been carried out using remote…
The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather events, posing risks to both space-borne and ground-based systems. Accurate prediction of their arrival time at Earth is critical for impact mitigation. To this end,…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has…
The empirical shock arrival (ESA) model was developed based on quadrature data from Helios (in-situ) and P-78 (remote-sensing) to predict the Sun-Earth travel time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [Gopalswamy et al. 2005a]. The ESA model…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) correspond to dramatic expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are scientifically relevant because they are involved in the physical mechanisms characterizing…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
Aims. We present the validation results for arrival times and geomagnetic impact of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), using the cone and spheromak CME models implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA).…
Forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is vital for protecting satellites, power systems, and human spaceflight. We present HELIOPANDA: Heliospheric Observer for Predicting CME Arrival via Nonlinear Drag Assimilation, a…
We present an automated pipeline for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ detection, and iterative flux rope reconstruction, following…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunication, satellite network disruptions, power grid…