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We derive recursions for the probability distribution of random sums by computer algebra. Unlike the well-known Panjer-type recursions, they are of finite order and thus allow for computation in linear time. This efficiency is bought by the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-23 S. Gerhold , R. Warnung

In this paper, we study finite-time ruin probabilities for the compound Markov binomial risk model - a discrete-time model where claim sizes are modulated by a finite-state ergodic Markov chain. In the classic (non-modulated) case, the risk…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-23 Zbigniew Palmowski , Lewis Ramsden , Apostolos D. Papaioannou

We study multidimensional Cram\'er-Lundberg risk processes where agents, located on a large sparse network, receive losses form their neighbors. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, we introduce classification of agents according to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-15 Hamed Amini , Zhongyuan Cao , Andreea Minca , Agnès Sulem

The study deals with the ruin problem when an insurance company invests its reserve in a risky asset whose the price dynamics is given by a geometric L\'evy process. Considering the ruin probability as a of the capital reserve we obtain for…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-10 Viktor Antipov , Yuri Kabanov

This paper focuses on a discrete-time risk model in which both insurance risk and financial risk are taken into account. We study the asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability and the tail probability of the aggregate risk amount.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Enkelejd Hashorva , Jinzhu Li

In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time $\zeta>0$. We focus on general spectrally negative L\'{e}vy insurance risk process. For this…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-21 Irmina Czarna , Zbigniew Palmowski

The study deals with the ruin problem when an insurance company having two business branches, life insurance and non-life insurance, invests its reserve into a risky asset with the price dynamics given by a geometric Brownian motion. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Yuri Kabanov , Nikita Pukhlyakov

In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-13 Søren Asmussen , Dominik Kortschak

Numerical evaluation of ruin probabilities in the classical risk model is an important problem. If claim sizes are heavy-tailed, then such evaluations are challenging. To overcome this, an attractive way is to approximate the claim sizes…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-25 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

This note explores the mathematical theory to solve modern gamblers ruin problems. We establish a ruin framework and solve for the probability of bankruptcy. We also show how this relates to the expected time to bankruptcy and review the…

Applications · Statistics 2014-03-25 Salil Mehta

We study the asymptotic behavior of ruin probabilities, as the initial reserve goes to infinity, for a reserve process model where claims arrive according to a renewal process, while between the claim times the process has the dynamics of…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-24 Ying He , Konstantin Borovkov

Let $\left\{\sum_{i=1}^n \lambda_i X_i(t), t\in [0,T]\right\}$ be an aggregate Gaussian risk process with $X_i, i\leq n$ independent Gaussian processes satisfying Piterbarg conditions and $\lambda_i$'s given positive weights. In this paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-24 Krzysztof Debicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Lanpeng Ji , Zhongquan Tan

Due to its practical use, De Vylder's approximation of the ruin probability has been one of the most popular approximations in ruin theory and its application to insurance. Surprisingly, only heuristic and numerical evidence has supported…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-04 Azmi Makhlouf

We consider a modification of the dividend maximization problem from ruin theory. Based on a classical risk process we maximize the difference of expected cumulated discounted dividends and total expected discounted additional funding…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-21 Josef Anton Strini , Stefan Thonhauser

In this work the ruin probability of the Lundberg risk process is used as a criterion for determining the optimal security loading of premia in the presence of price-sensitive demand for insurance. Both single and aggregated claim processes…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-24 Ragnar Levy Gudmundarson , Manuel Guerra , Alexandra Bugalho de Moura

We give explicit formulas for ruin probabilities in a multidimensional Generalized Gambler's ruin problem. The generalization is best interpreted as a game of one player against $d$ other players, allowing arbitrary winning and losing…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-26 Paweł Lorek

The authors propose a new variation of random walks called ladder chains $L(r,s,p)$. We extend concepts such as ruin probability, hitting time, transience and recurrence of random walks to ladder chain. Take $L(2,2,p)$ for instance, we find…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Chenhe Zhang , Xiang Fang

We obtain the distribution of the maximal average in a sequence of independent identically distributed exponential random variables. Surprisingly enough, it turns out that the inverse distribution admits a simple closed form. An application…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Dimitris Cheliotis , Nickos Papadatos

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Denis Denisov , Niklas Gotthardt , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

The field of risk theory has traditionally focused on ruin-related quantities. In particular, the socalled Expected Discounted Penalty Function has been the object of a thorough study over the years. Although interesting in their own right,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-06-27 Zied Ben-Salah , Hélène Guérin , Manuel Morales , Hassan Omidi Firouzi