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We study the consistency and weak convergence of the conditional tail function and conditional Hill estimators under broad dependence assumptions for a heavy-tailed response sequence and a covariate sequence. Consistency is established…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Martin Bladt , Laurits Glargaard , Theodor Henningsen

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify the directional dependence of extreme events between two variables. The proposed approach is designed to capture asymmetric tail dependence by studying conditional tail expectations of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-06 Matthieu Garcin , Maxime L. D. Nicolas

Whether an extreme observation is an outlier or not, depends strongly on the corresponding tail behaviour of the underlying distribution. We develop an automatic, data-driven method to identify extreme tail behaviour that deviates from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-06 Shrijita Bhattacharya , Jan Beirlant

Vine copulas are a type of multivariate dependence model, composed of a collection of bivariate copulas that are combined according to a specific underlying graphical structure. Their flexibility and practicality in moderate and high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-19 Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan A. Tawn

Graphical model selection is a seemingly impossible task when many pairs of variables are never jointly observed; this requires inference of conditional dependencies with no observations of corresponding marginal dependencies. This…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-16 Giuseppe Vinci , Gautam Dasarathy , Genevera I. Allen

Copulas, generalized estimating equations, and generalized linear mixed models promote the analysis of grouped data where non-normal responses are correlated. Unfortunately, parameter estimation remains challenging in these three…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 Sarah S. Ji , Benjamin B. Chu , Hua Zhou , Kenneth Lange

The class of index-mixed copulas is introduced and its properties are investigated. Index-mixed copulas are constructed from given base copulas and a random index vector, and show a rather remarkable degree of analytical tractability. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-10 Klaus Herrmann , Marius Hofert , Nahid Sadr

Stable random variables are motivated by the central limit theorem for densities with (potentially) unbounded variance and can be thought of as natural generalizations of the Gaussian distribution to skewed and heavy-tailed phenomenon. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-17 Navodit Misra , Ercan E. Kuruoglu

We consider random graphs with a given degree sequence and show, under weak technical conditions, asymptotic normality of the number of components isomorphic to a given tree, first for the random multigraph given by the configuration model…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-01 Svante Janson

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-12 Miriam Hägele , Jaakko Lehtomaa

Given a random sample from a multivariate normal distribution whose covariance matrix is a Toeplitz matrix, we study the largest off-diagonal entry of the sample correlation matrix. Assuming the multivariate normal distribution has the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-27 Tiefeng Jiang , Tuan Pham

Suppose that the edges of a complete graph are assigned weights independently at random and we ask for the weight of the minimal-weight spanning tree, or perfect matching, or Hamiltonian cycle. For these and several other common…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Yun Cheng , Yixue Liu , Tomasz Tkocz , Albert Xu

We consider the clustering of extremes for stationary regularly varying random fields over arbitrary growing index sets. We study sufficient assumptions on the index set such that the limit of the point random fields of the exceedances…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-23 Riccardo Passeggeri , Olivier Wintenberger

Analyzing the geometry of correlation sets constrained by general causal structures is of paramount importance for foundational and quantum technology research. Addressing this task is generally challenging, prompting the development of…

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-22 Sen Hu , Adrian O'Hagan

Extremal graphical models encode the conditional independence structure of multivariate extremes and provide a powerful tool for quantifying the risk of rare events. Prior work on learning these graphs from data has focused on the setting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-15 Sebastian Engelke , Armeen Taeb

Nonparametric regression quantiles obtained by inverting a kernel estimator of the conditional distribution of the response are long established in statistics. Attention has been, however, restricted to ordinary quantiles staying away from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-19 Abdelaati Daouia , Laurent Gardes , Stéphane Girard

The classical tail dependence coefficient (TDC) may fail to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence due to its restrictive focus on the diagonal of the underlying copula. To address this limitation, the framework of path-based…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-08 Takaaki Koike , Marius Hofert , Haruki Tsunekawa

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

The Central Limit Theorem states that, in the limit of a large number of terms, an appropriately scaled sum of independent random variables yields another random variable whose probability distribution tends to a stable distribution. The…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-04-08 Damián H. Zanette , Inés Samengo