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The evolution of space technology in recent years, fueled by advancements in computing such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), has profoundly transformed our capacity to explore the cosmos. Missions like the James…
As the number of known exoplanets has climbed into the thousands, efforts by theorists to understand the diversity of climates that may exist on terrestrial planets in the habitable zone have also accelerated. These efforts have ranged from…
From analytical studies of tidal heating, eclipses and planetary illumination, it is clear that the exomoon habitable zone (EHZ) - the set of moon and host planet orbits that permit liquid water on an Earthlike moon's surface - is a…
In the quest to understand the climates and atmospheres of exoplanets, 3D global climate models (GCMs) have become indispensable. The ability of GCMs to predict atmospheric conditions complements exoplanet observations, creating a feedback…
Earth System Models (ESM) are important tools that allow us to understand and quantify the physical, chemical & biological mechanisms governing the rates of change of elements of the Earth System, comprising of the atmosphere, ocean, land,…
In this paper, we propose conjugate energy-based models (CEBMs), a new class of energy-based models that define a joint density over data and latent variables. The joint density of a CEBM decomposes into an intractable distribution over…
Earth's temperature variability can be partitioned into internal and externally-forced components. Yet, underlying mechanisms and their relative contributions remain insufficiently understood, especially on decadal to centennial timescales.…
Climate models play a crucial role in understanding the effect of environmental and man-made changes on climate to help mitigate climate risks and inform governmental decisions. Large global climate models such as the Community Earth System…
Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…
Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
Model-based planning holds great promise for improving both sample efficiency and generalization in reinforcement learning (RL). We show that energy-based models (EBMs) are a promising class of models to use for model-based planning. EBMs…
Climate science employs a hierarchy of models, trading the tractability of simplified energy balance models (EBMs) against the detail of Global Circulation Models. Since the pioneering work of Hasselmann, stochastic EBMs have allowed…
Cloud computing offers an opportunity to run compute-resource intensive climate models at scale by parallelising model runs such that datasets useful to the exoplanet community can be produced efficiently. To better understand the…
Anomaly-diffusing energy balance models (AD-EBM) are routinely employed to analyze and emulate the warming response of both observed and simulated Earth systems. We demonstrate a deficiency in common multi-layer as well as…
Eccentric planets may spend a significant portion of their orbits at large distances from their host stars, where low temperatures can cause atmospheric CO2 to condense out onto the surface, similar to the polar ice caps on Mars. The…
A dynamical system derived from a conceptual climate model is investigated. The model is often referred to as Budyko-Sellers type Energy Balance Model (EBM), or in short, the Budyko model. The focus of this study is on the mathematical…
This paper describes the Habitable Energy balance model for eXoplaneT ObseRvations (HEXTOR), which is a model for calculating latitudinal temperature profiles on Earth and other rapidly rotating planets. HEXTOR includes a lookup table…
Quantifying the risk of global warming exceeding critical targets such as 2.0 K requires reliable projections of uncertainty as well as best estimates of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST). However, uncertainty bands on GMST projections…
With an increased focus on the observing and modelling of mini-Neptunes, there comes a need to better understand the tools we use to model their atmospheres. In this paper, we present the protocol for the CAMEMBERT (Comparing Atmospheric…