Related papers: Modeling and Forecasting COVID-19 Cases using Late…

We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…

The global spread of COVID-19 had severe consequences for public health and the world economy. The quick onset of the pandemic highlighted the potential benefits of cheap and deployable pre-screening methods to monitor the prevalence of the…

COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…

There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…

Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…

We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

The COVID-19 disease has forced countries to make a considerable collaborative effort between scientists and governments to provide indicators to suitable follow-up the pandemic's consequences. Mathematical modeling plays a crucial role in…

This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

It is widely accepted that the number of reported cases during the first stages of the COVID-19 pandemic severely underestimates the number of actual cases. We leverage delay embedding theorems of Whitney and Takens and use Gaussian Process…

The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…

By the end of July 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected more than seventeen million people and had spread to almost all countries worldwide. In response, many countries all over the world have used different methods to reduce the…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

Countries are recording health information on the global spread of COVID-19 using different methods, sometimes changing the rules after a few days. They are all publishing the number of new individuals infected, cured and dead, along with…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that when the reproduction number is high and there are no proper measurements in place, the number of infected people can increase dramatically in a short time, producing a phenomenon that many…

Since two people came down a county of north Seattle with positive COVID-19 (coronavirus-19) in 2019, the current total cases in the United States (U.S.) are over 12 million. Predicting the pandemic trend under effective variables is…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging every part of society. From a scientific point of view the first major task is to predict the dynamics of the pandemic, allowing governments to allocate proper resources and measures to fight it,…