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Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Jinxu Lin , Linwei Tao , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to provide interpretations for predictions made by learning machines, such as deep neural networks, in order to make the machines more transparent for the user and furthermore trustworthy also for applications in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-17 Kirill Bykov , Marina M. -C. Höhne , Klaus-Robert Müller , Shinichi Nakajima , Marius Kloft

With the rise of Deep Neural Networks, machine learning systems are nowadays ubiquitous in a number of real-world applications, which bears the need for highly reliable models. This requires a thorough look not only at the accuracy of such…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Pedro Conde , Tiago Barros , Rui L. Lopes , Cristiano Premebida , Urbano J. Nunes

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning is currently drawing increasing research interest, driven by the rapid deployment of deep neural networks across different fields, such as computer vision, natural language processing, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , Apostolos F Psaros , George Em Karniadakis

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

We present a simple and effective approach for posterior uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks (DeepONets); an emerging paradigm for supervised learning in function spaces. We adopt a frequentist approach based on randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Yibo Yang , Georgios Kissas , Paris Perdikaris

Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the potential to dramatically improve patient care. However, it is not infallible, necessitating human-AI-collaboration to ensure safe implementation. One aspect of AI safety is the models' ability to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-27 Anna M. Wundram , Christian F. Baumgartner

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

Large language models (LLMs) often miscommunicate their uncertainty: repeated queries can produce divergent answers, yet generated responses are typically unhedged or hedged in ways that do not reflect this variability. This conveys…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Bryan Eikema , Evgenia Ilia , José G. C. de Souza , Chrysoula Zerva , Wilker Aziz

One of the key obstacles in traditional deep learning is the reduction in model transparency caused by increasingly intricate model functions, which can lead to problems such as overfitting and excessive confidence in predictions. With the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Maximilian Wendlinger , Kilian Tscharke , Pascal Debus

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Engineering design and scientific analysis rely upon computer simulations of turbulent fluid flows using turbulence models. These turbulence models are empirical and approximate, leading to large uncertainties in their predictions that…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-28 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-12 Hanjing Wang , Dhiraj Joshi , Shiqiang Wang , Qiang Ji

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

Transformers have had a profound impact on the field of artificial intelligence, especially on large language models and their variants. However, as was the case with neural networks, their black-box nature limits trust and deployment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Abhiram Vellore , Niraj K. Jha

Researchers have proposed several approaches for neural network (NN) based uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, most of the approaches are developed considering strong assumptions. Uncertainty quantification algorithms often perform…

Traditional approaches to estimating beta in finance often involve rigid assumptions and fail to adequately capture beta dynamics, limiting their effectiveness in use cases like hedging. To address these limitations, we have developed a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-29 Yuxin Liu , Jimin Lin , Achintya Gopal

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor