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Uncertainty quantification methods are required in autonomous systems that include deep learning (DL) components to assess the confidence of their estimations. However, to successfully deploy DL components in safety-critical autonomous…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Fabio Arnez , Huascar Espinoza , Ansgar Radermacher , François Terrier

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

Data-driven methods based on machine learning have the potential to accelerate computational analysis of atomic structures. In this context, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for assessing confidence in predictions and enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Jonas Busk , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen , Arghya Bhowmik , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge

Virtual Diagnostic (VD) is a deep learning tool that can be used to predict a diagnostic output. VDs are especially useful in systems where measuring the output is invasive, limited, costly or runs the risk of damaging the output. Given a…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2021-08-02 Owen Convery , Lewis Smith , Yarin Gal , Adi Hanuka

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) enable atomistic simulations with near first-principles accuracy at substantially reduced computational cost, making them powerful tools for large-scale materials modeling. The accuracy of…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-08-11 Yonatan Kurniawan , Mingjian Wen , Ellad B. Tadmor , Mark K. Transtrum

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

We present MatUQ, a benchmark framework for evaluating graph neural networks (GNNs) on out-of-distribution (OOD) materials property prediction with uncertainty quantification (UQ). MatUQ comprises 1,375 OOD prediction tasks constructed from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Liqin Tan , Pin Chen , Menghan Liu , Xiean Wang , Jianhuan Cen , Qingsong Zou

We introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) with flow approximated posteriors using multiplicative normalizing flows (MNF) for detailed uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the physics event-level. Our method is capable of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Cristiano Fanelli , James Giroux

Quantizing deep neural networks is an effective method for reducing memory consumption and improving inference speed, and is thus useful for implementation in resource-constrained devices. However, it is still hard for extremely low-bit…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-11-03 Kohei Yamamoto

Estimating uncertainty is at the core of performing scientific measurements in HEP: a measurement is not useful without an estimate of its uncertainty. The goal of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is inextricably linked to the question, "how…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2022-11-02 Thomas Y. Chen , Biprateep Dey , Aishik Ghosh , Michael Kagan , Brian Nord , Nesar Ramachandra

The design of next-generation alloys through the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach relies on multi-scale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct.…

A framework is developed based on different uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques in order to assess validation and verification (V&V) metrics in computational physics problems, in general, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD), in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-07-15 Saleh Rezaeiravesh , Ricardo Vinuesa , Philipp Schlatter

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial…

We propose a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which the UQ objectives and the assumptions/information set are brought to the forefront. This framework, which we call \emph{Optimal Uncertainty Quantification} (OUQ),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-20 Houman Owhadi , Clint Scovel , Timothy John Sullivan , Mike McKerns , Michael Ortiz

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Characterizing uncertainty is a common issue in nuclear measurement and has important implications for reliable physical discovery. Traditional methods are either insufficient to cope with the heterogeneous nature of uncertainty or…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-03-01 Pengcheng Ai , Zhi Deng , Yi Wang , Chendi Shen

We present a simple and effective approach for posterior uncertainty quantification in deep operator networks (DeepONets); an emerging paradigm for supervised learning in function spaces. We adopt a frequentist approach based on randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-17 Yibo Yang , Georgios Kissas , Paris Perdikaris

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning (SciML) becomes increasingly critical as neural networks (NNs) are being widely adopted in addressing complex problems across various scientific disciplines. Representative…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Zongren Zou , Xuhui Meng , George Em Karniadakis