Related papers: Temporal and probabilistic comparisons of epidemic…
The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…
BACKGROUND. Epidemic models of STIs are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) of unmet prevention and treatment needs within…
The spread of an infection on a real-world social network is determined by the interplay of two processes: the dynamics of the network, whose structure changes over time according to the encounters between individuals, and the dynamics on…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…
The concurrency of edges, quantified by the number of edges that share a common node at a given time point, may be an important determinant of epidemic processes in temporal networks. We propose theoretically tractable Markovian temporal…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…
The time-dependent reproduction number Rt can be used to track pathogen transmission and to assess the efficacy of interventions. This quantity can be estimated by fitting renewal equation models to time series of infectious disease case…
The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…
We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
The population-attributable fraction (PAF) expresses the proportion of events that can be ascribed to a certain exposure in a certain population. It can be strongly time-dependent because either exposure incidence or excess risk may change…
In many applications, it is of interest to study trends over time in relationships among categorical variables, such as age group, ethnicity, religious affiliation, political party and preference for particular policies. At each time point,…
A diffusive epidemic model with an infection-dependent recovery rate is formulated in this paper. Multiple constant steady states and spatially homogeneous periodic solutions are first proven by bifurcation analysis of the reaction…
A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
The public health impact of a harmful exposure can be quantified by the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The PAF describes the attributable risk due to an exposure and is often interpreted as the proportion of preventable cases if…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
Competition and collaboration are at the heart of multi-agent probabilistic spreading processes. The battle on public opinion and competitive marketing campaigns are typical examples of the former, while the joint spread of multiple…