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The multivariate Fay-Herriot model is quite effective in combining information through correlations among small area survey estimates of related variables or historical survey estimates of the same variable or both. Though the literature on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-29 Takumi Saegusa , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Partha Lahiri

Understanding the pathways whereby an intervention has an effect on an outcome is a common scientific goal. A rich body of literature provides various decompositions of the total intervention effect into pathway specific effects.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 David Benkeser

The Cox model is an indispensable tool for time-to-event analysis, particularly in biomedical research. However, medicine is undergoing a profound transformation, generating data at an unprecedented scale, which opens new frontiers to study…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Alexander W. Jung , Moritz Gerstung

Randomized experiments are the gold standard for estimating treatment effects, and randomization serves as a reasoned basis for inference. In widely used stratified randomized experiments, randomization-based finite-population asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Haoyang Yu , Ke Zhu , Hanzhong Liu

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

Matching in causal inference from observational data aims to construct treatment and control groups with similar distributions of covariates, thereby reducing confounding and ensuring an unbiased estimation of treatment effects. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Sahil Shikalgar , Md. Noor-E-Alam

One of the most commonly used methods for forming confidence intervals for statistical inference is the empirical bootstrap, which is especially expedient when the limiting distribution of the estimator is unknown. However, despite its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Morgane Austern , Vasilis Syrgkanis

It can be argued that optimal prediction should take into account all available data. Therefore, to evaluate a prediction interval's performance one should employ conditional coverage probability, conditioning on all available observations.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Yunyi Zhang , Dimitris N. Politis

Machine learning models achieve state-of-the-art performance on many supervised learning tasks. However, prior evidence suggests that these models may learn to rely on shortcut biases or spurious correlations (intuitively, correlations that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Sindhu C. M. Gowda , Shalmali Joshi , Haoran Zhang , Marzyeh Ghassemi

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Bradley Efron

Causal inference is a fundamental research topic for discovering the cause-effect relationships in many disciplines. However, not all algorithms are equally well-suited for a given dataset. For instance, some approaches may only be able to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Zhipeng Ma , Marco Kemmerling , Daniel Buschmann , Chrismarie Enslin , Daniel Lütticke , Robert H. Schmitt

The latent class model is a powerful unsupervised clustering algorithm for categorical data. Many statistics exist to test the fit of the latent class model. However, traditional methods to evaluate those fit statistics are not always…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 Geert H. van Kollenburg , Joris Mulder , Jeroen K. Vermunt

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

Bootstrap methods are increasingly accepted as one of the common approaches in constructing confidence intervals in bibliometric studies. Typical bootstrap methods assume that the statistical population is infinite. When the statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-17 Tina Nane , Kasper Kooijman

Causal inference and the estimation of causal effects plays a central role in decision-making across many areas, including healthcare and economics. Estimating causal effects typically requires an estimator that is tailored to each problem…

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

In this paper, we propose a bootstrap method applied to massive data processed distributedly in a large number of machines. This new method is computationally efficient in that we bootstrap on the master machine without over-resampling,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-21 Yang Yu , Shih-Kang Chao , Guang Cheng

Practical inference procedures for quantile regression models of panel data have been a pervasive concern in empirical work, and can be especially challenging when the panel is observed over many time periods and temporal dependence needs…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-25 Antonio F. Galvao , Carlos Lamarche , Thomas Parker

This paper establishes the functional average as an important estimand for causal inference. The significance of the estimand lies in its robustness against traditional issues of confounding. We prove that this robustness holds even when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-04 Shane Sparkes , Erika Garcia , Lu Zhang

In this article, we present data-subsetting algorithms that allow for the approximate and scalable implementation of the Bayesian bootstrap. They are analogous to two existing algorithms in the frequentist literature: the bag of little…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-25 Andrés F. Barrientos , Víctor Peña
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