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Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Deploying deep learning models in real-world certified systems requires the ability to provide confidence estimates that accurately reflect their uncertainty. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the conformal prediction framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Léo Andéol , Thomas Fel , Florence De Grancey , Luca Mossina

The vast majority of uncertainty quantification methods for deep object detectors such as variational inference are based on the network output. Here, we study gradient-based epistemic uncertainty metrics for deep object detectors to obtain…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Tobias Riedlinger , Matthias Rottmann , Marius Schubert , Hanno Gottschalk

Quantifying uncertainty is crucial for robust and reliable predictions. However, existing spatiotemporal deep learning mostly focuses on deterministic prediction, overlooking the inherent uncertainty in such prediction. Particularly,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-16 Dingyi Zhuang , Yuheng Bu , Guang Wang , Shenhao Wang , Jinhua Zhao

Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Bhawesh Kumar , Charlie Lu , Gauri Gupta , Anil Palepu , David Bellamy , Ramesh Raskar , Andrew Beam

The use of AI systems in healthcare for the early screening of diseases is of great clinical importance. Deep learning has shown great promise in medical imaging, but the reliability and trustworthiness of AI systems limit their deployment…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-17 Ke Zou , Zhihao Chen , Xuedong Yuan , Xiaojing Shen , Meng Wang , Huazhu Fu

In this work, we study the problem of word-level confidence calibration for scene-text recognition (STR). Although the topic of confidence calibration has been an active research area for the last several decades, the case of structured and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-24 Ron Slossberg , Oron Anschel , Amir Markovitz , Ron Litman , Aviad Aberdam , Shahar Tsiper , Shai Mazor , Jon Wu , R. Manmatha

Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for robust object detection in autonomous driving. However, previous works on probabilistic object detection either learn predictive probability for bounding box regression in an un-supervised…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-08-11 Di Feng , Lars Rosenbaum , Fabian Timm , Klaus Dietmayer

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have enabled astounding progress in several vision-based problems. Despite showing high predictive accuracy, recently, several works have revealed that they tend to provide overconfident predictions and thus are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-28 Muhammad Akhtar Munir , Muhammad Haris Khan , Salman Khan , Fahad Shahbaz Khan

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-12 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Visual Place Recognition (VPR) enables robots and autonomous vehicles to identify previously visited locations by matching current observations against a database of known places. However, VPR systems face significant challenges when…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Emily Miller , Michael Milford , Muhammad Burhan Hafez , SD Ramchurn , Shoaib Ehsan

Most image restoration problems are ill-conditioned or ill-posed and hence involve significant uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for reliably interpreting experimental results, particularly when reconstructed images…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-02-10 Jasper M. Everink , Bernardin Tamo Amougou , Marcelo Pereyra

In object detection with deep neural networks, the box-wise objectness score tends to be overconfident, sometimes even indicating high confidence in presence of inaccurate predictions. Hence, the reliability of the prediction and therefore…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Marius Schubert , Karsten Kahl , Matthias Rottmann

Multi-modal object detection in autonomous driving has achieved great breakthroughs due to the usage of fusing complementary information from different sensors. The calibration in fusion between sensors such as LiDAR and camera was always…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Zhihang Song , Dingyi Yao , Ruibo Ming , Lihui Peng , Danya Yao , Yi Zhang

Calibration is a classical notion from the forecasting literature which aims to address the question: how should predicted probabilities be interpreted? In a world where we only get to observe (discrete) outcomes, how should we evaluate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Parikshit Gopalan , Lunjia Hu

Calibration is commonly evaluated by comparing model confidence with its empirical correctness, implicitly treating reliability as a function of the confidence score alone. However, this view can hide substantial structure: models may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Katarzyna Kobalczyk , Mihaela van der Schaar

The assessment of binary classifier performance traditionally centers on discriminative ability using metrics, such as accuracy. However, these metrics often disregard the model's inherent uncertainty, especially when dealing with sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Emmanuel Flachaire , Ewen Gallic , François Hu