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Existing trajectory prediction methods exhibit significant performance degradation under distribution shifts during test time. Although test-time training techniques have been explored to enable adaptation, current approaches rely on an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-11 Yuning Wang , Pu Zhang , Yuan He , Ke Wang , Jianru Xue

In the field of Machine Learning (ML) and data-driven applications, one of the significant challenge is the change in data distribution between the training and deployment stages, commonly known as distribution shift. This paper outlines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Lakpa Tamang , Mohamed Reda Bouadjenek , Richard Dazeley , Sunil Aryal

We show that in the context of classification the property of source and target distributions to be related by covariate shift may be lost if the information content captured in the covariates is reduced, for instance by dropping components…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-16 Dirk Tasche

When deploying modern machine learning-enabled robotic systems in high-stakes applications, detecting distribution shift is critical. However, most existing methods for detecting distribution shift are not well-suited to robotics settings,…

We study the well-motivated problem of online distribution shift in which the data arrive in batches and the distribution of each batch can change arbitrarily over time. Since the shifts can be large or small, abrupt or gradual, the length…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Dheeraj Baby , Boran Han , Shuai Zhang , Cuixiong Hu , Yuyang Wang , Yu-Xiang Wang

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification method that has gained popularity in the machine learning community due to its finite-sample guarantees and ease of use. Its most common variant, dubbed split conformal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Christos Louizos

We consider the general problem of learning a predictor that satisfies multiple objectives of interest simultaneously, a broad framework that captures a range of specific learning goals including calibration, regret, and multiaccuracy. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Jivat Neet Kaur , Isaac Gibbs , Michael I. Jordan

Urban spatio-temporal (ST) forecasting is crucial for various urban applications such as intelligent scheduling and trip planning. Previous studies focus on modeling ST correlations among urban locations in offline settings, which often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Chengxin Wang , Gary Tan , Swagato Barman Roy , Beng Chin Ooi

Transfer learning enhances prediction accuracy on a target distribution by leveraging data from a source distribution, demonstrating significant benefits in various applications. This paper introduces a novel dissimilarity measure that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-12 Mitsuhiro Fujikawa , Yohei Akimoto , Jun Sakuma , Kazuto Fukuchi

We consider the problem of forming prediction sets in an online setting where the distribution generating the data is allowed to vary over time. Previous approaches to this problem suffer from over-weighting historical data and thus may…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-09 Isaac Gibbs , Emmanuel Candès

Imitation learning practitioners have often noted that conditioning policies on previous actions leads to a dramatic divergence between "held out" error and performance of the learner in situ. Interactive approaches can provably address…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Jonathan Spencer , Sanjiban Choudhury , Arun Venkatraman , Brian Ziebart , J. Andrew Bagnell

Coreset selection, which involves selecting a small subset from an existing training dataset, is an approach to reducing training data, and various approaches have been proposed for this method. In practical situations where these methods…

In supervised learning, the estimation of prediction error on unlabeled test data is an important task. Existing methods are usually built on the assumption that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution, which is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-30 Hui Xu , Robert Tibshirani

We study the problem of distribution shift generally arising in machine-learning augmented hybrid simulation, where parts of simulation algorithms are replaced by data-driven surrogates. We first establish a mathematical framework to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Jiaxi Zhao , Qianxiao Li

Large scale deep learning provides a tremendous opportunity to improve the quality of content recommendation systems by employing both wider and deeper models, but this comes at great infrastructural cost and carbon footprint in modern data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Mao Ye , Dhruv Choudhary , Jiecao Yu , Ellie Wen , Zeliang Chen , Jiyan Yang , Jongsoo Park , Qiang Liu , Arun Kejariwal

Many machine learning methods assume that the training and test data follow the same distribution. However, in the real world, this assumption is very often violated. In particular, the phenomenon that the marginal distribution of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-20 Masanari Kimura , Hideitsu Hino

Input distribution shift presents a significant problem in many real-world systems. Here we present Xenovert, an adaptive algorithm that can dynamically adapt to changes in input distribution. It is a perfect binary tree that adaptively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Tham Yik Foong , Heng Zhang , Mao Po Yuan , Danilo Vasconcellos Vargas

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Zachary Nado , Shreyas Padhy , D. Sculley , Alexander D'Amour , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Jasper Snoek

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in safety-critical systems, where decisions must be made under uncertainty. In particular, we consider the problem of online uncertainty quantification, where data points arrive sequentially. Online…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Junyoung Yang , Kyungmin Kim , Sangdon Park

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is a technique used to reduce distribution gaps between the training and testing sets by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. In this work, we expand TTA to a more practical scenario, where the test…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-06 Chenyan Wu , Yimu Pan , Yandong Li , James Z. Wang