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In the pursuit of autonomous learning systems, the foundational assumption of stationarity, the premise that data distributions and model behaviors remain constant, is fundamentally untenable. Historically, the research community has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Xiaoyu Yang , En Yu , Jie Lu

This paper provides a rigorous study of the nonparametric estimation of filaments or ridge lines of a probability density $f$. Points on the filament are considered as local extrema of the density when traversing the support of $f$ along…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-27 Wanli Qiao , Wolfgang Polonik

The Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) algorithm can be applied to stochastic differential equations to estimate the drift and the diffusion function using data from a realization of the SDE. The SINDy algorithm requires…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-29 Mathias Wanner , Igor Mezić

The use of non parametric hidden Markov models with finite state space is flourishing in practice while few theoretical guarantees are known in this framework. Here, we study asymptotic guarantees for these models in the Bayesian framework.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-30 Elodie Vernet

Most predictive models assume that training and test data are generated from a stationary process. However, this assumption does not hold true in practice. In this paper, we consider the scenario of a gradual concept drift due to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Subhro Das , Prasanth Lade , Soundar Srinivasan

In this paper we provide a thorough, rigorous theoretical framework to assess optimality guarantees of sampling-based algorithms for drift control systems: systems that, loosely speaking, can not stop instantaneously due to momentum. We…

Robotics · Computer Science 2015-10-28 Edward Schmerling , Lucas Janson , Marco Pavone

We consider a distributionally robust formulation of stochastic optimization problems arising in statistical learning, where robustness is with respect to uncertainty in the underlying data distribution. Our formulation builds on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Andrzej Ruszczyński , Landi Zhu

In recent years, we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate for these scenarios. However, reliable streaming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Ioar Casado , Aritz Pérez

In this paper we study the properties of the Lasso estimator of the drift component in the diffusion setting. More specifically, we consider a multivariate parametric diffusion model $X$ observed continuously over the interval $[0,T]$ and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-29 Gabriela Ciolek , Dmytro Marushkevych , Mark Podolskij

The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Fabian Hinder , André Artelt , Barbara Hammer

The nonparametric estimation of the volatility and the drift coefficient of a scalar diffusion is studied when the process is observed at random time points. The constructed estimator generalizes the spectral method by Gobet, Hoffmann and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-12 Jakub Chorowski , Mathias Trabs

We study a new parametric approach for hidden discrete-time diffusion models. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution and leads to estimate a large class of stochastic models with nonlinear drift and nonlinear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-01 Salima El Kolei , Florian Pelgrin

In recent years, diffusion models, and more generally score-based deep generative models, have achieved remarkable success in various applications, including image and audio generation. In this paper, we view diffusion models as an implicit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Hyeok Kyu Kwon , Dongha Kim , Ilsang Ohn , Minwoo Chae

Driven by the need to solve increasingly complex optimization problems in signal processing and machine learning, there has been increasing interest in understanding the behavior of gradient-descent algorithms in non-convex environments.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-04 Stefan Vlaski , Ali H. Sayed

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is a widely-used approach to learn models that are robust against distribution shift. Compared with the standard optimization setting, the objective function in DRO is more difficult to optimize,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Jikai Jin , Bohang Zhang , Haiyang Wang , Liwei Wang

Divergence estimators based on direct approximation of density-ratios without going through separate approximation of numerator and denominator densities have been successfully applied to machine learning tasks that involve distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-24 Makoto Yamada , Taiji Suzuki , Takafumi Kanamori , Hirotaka Hachiya , Masashi Sugiyama

Non-parametric estimation of a convex discrete distribution may be of interest in several applications, such as the estimation of species abundance distribution in ecology. In this paper we study the least squares estimator of a discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-29 Cécile Durot , François Koladjo , Sylvie Huet , Stéphane Robin

This paper studies the problem of steering the distribution of a discrete-time dynamical system from an initial distribution to a target distribution in finite time. The formulation is fully nonlinear, allowing the use of general control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-05 George Rapakoulias , Panagiotis Tsiotras

We investigate the nonparametric estimation for regression in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. Sufficient conditions for kernel estimators to converge uniformly are obtained. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Mohamed El Machkouri

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac