Related papers: Drastic changes before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,…
Here we suggest a new procedure through which one can identify when the accumulation of stresses before major earthquakes (EQs) (of magnitude M 8.2 or larger) occurs. By analyzing the seismicity in the frame of natural time, which is a new…
A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit…
The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other…
Applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to the geomagnetic data recorded at three measuring stations in Japan, Rong et al. in 2012 reported that anomalous magnetic field variations were identified well before the occurrence of the…
Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes…
By analyzing the seismicity in natural time and studying the evolution of the fluctuations of the entropy change of seismicity under time reversal for various scales of different length i (number of events), we can identify the approach of…
The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago south of Japan's main islands, has experienced ongoing earthquake swarm activity in 2025, raising concerns about triggering the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. The Japan Meteorological Agency…
Xu et al. [J. Asian Earth Sci. {\bf 77}, 59-65 (2013)] It has just been reported that approximately 2 months prior to the $M_w$9.0 Tohoku earthquake that occurred in Japan on 11 March 2011 anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field have…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most widely-used approaches to seismic forecasting. However most studies of ETAS use point estimates for the model parameters, which ignores the inherent uncertainty that…
Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we…
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…
The recent M9 Tohoku Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011 was the largest recorded earthquake ever to hit this nation. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters - outgoing long wave…
The aftershock sequence of the devastating Japan earthquake of March 2011 is analyzed for the presence of periodicities at the Earth tide periods. We use spectral analysis as well as a time-domain method KORRECT developed earlier to detect…
It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…
By applying natural time analysis to the time series of earthquakes, we find that the order parameter of seismicity exhibits a unique change approximately at the date(s) at which Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities have been reported…
Megathrusts host Earth's largest earthquakes. Understanding the physical conditions controlling their rupture dynamics is critical for assessing seismic and tsunami hazards. These earthquakes often display complex rupture dynamics,…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…