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Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-17 Karim Barigou , Pierre-Olivier Goffard , Stéphane Loisel , Yahia Salhi

Contemporary statistical publications rely on simulation to evaluate performance of new methods and compare them with established methods. In the context of meta-analysis of log-odds-ratios, we investigate how the ways in which simulations…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-06 Elena Kulinskaya , David C. Hoaglin , Ilyas Bakbergenuly

We show how random subspace methods can be adapted to estimating local projections with many controls. Random subspace methods have their roots in the machine learning literature and are implemented by averaging over regressions estimated…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-04 Viet Hoang Dinh , Didier Nibbering , Benjamin Wong

Estimating prevalence, the fraction of a population with a certain medical condition, is fundamental to epidemiology. Traditional methods rely on classification of test samples taken at random from a population. Such approaches to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-25 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

The paper delineates a proper statistical setting for defining the sampling design for a small area estimation problem. This problem is often treated only via indirect estimation using the values of the variable of interest also from…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-16 Piero Demetrio Falorsi , Stefano Falorsi , Vincenzo Nardelli , Paolo Righi

Fitting spatio-temporal models for areal data is crucial in many fields such as cancer epidemiology. However, when data sets are very large, many issues arise. The main objective of this paper is to propose a general procedure to analyze…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 E. Orozco-Acosta , A. Adin , M. D. Ugarte

Small area estimation using survey data can be achieved by using either a design-based or a model-based inferential approach. Design-based direct estimators are generally preferable because of their consistency, asymptotic normality, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-13 Alana McGovern , Katherine Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Accurate fertility estimates at fine spatial resolution are essential for localized public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While national-level indicators such as age-specific fertility rates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Yunhan Wu , Jon Wakefield

Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S.…

Empirical Bayes small area estimation based on the well-known Fay-Herriot model may produce unreliable estimates when outlying areas exist. Existing robust methods against outliers or model misspecification are generally inefficient when…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-28 Daisuke Kurisu , Takuya Ishihara , Shonosuke Sugasawa

This comment emphasizes the importance of model checking and model fitting when making inferences about finite population quantities. It also suggests the value of using unit level models when making inferences for small subpopulations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-08-22 J. Sedransk

Measuring treatment efficacy in mixture of subgroups from a randomized clinical trial is a fundamental problem in personalized medicine development, in deciding whether to treat the entire patient population or to target a subgroup. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-03 Ying Ding , Hui-Min Lin , Jason C. Hsu

Monitoring cause-of-death data is an important part of understanding disease burdens and effects of public health interventions. Verbal autopsy (VA) is a well-established method for gathering information about deaths outside of hospitals by…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Yu Zhu , Zehang Richard Li

When estimating causal effects using observational data, it is desirable to replicate a randomized experiment as closely as possible by obtaining treated and control groups with similar covariate distributions. This goal can often be…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-10-28 Elizabeth A. Stuart

This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-21 Ralph Brinks

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-20 Man Chung Fung , Gareth W. Peters , Pavel V. Shevchenko

Subsampling methods aim to select a subsample as a surrogate for the observed sample. As a powerful technique for large-scale data analysis, various subsampling methods are developed for more effective coefficient estimation and model…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-05 Tao Li , Cheng Meng

In this work we address the analysis of discrete-time models of structured metapopulations subject to environmental stochasticity. Previous works on these models made use of the fact that migrations between the patches can be considered…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-02-07 Luis Sanz , Rafael Bravo de la Parra

Many statistical models have high accuracy on test benchmarks, but are not explainable, struggle in low-resource scenarios, cannot be reused for multiple tasks, and cannot easily integrate domain expertise. These factors limit their use,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Andrew Lee , Jonathan K. Kummerfeld , Lawrence C. An , Rada Mihalcea

Machine learning models $-$ now commonly developed to screen, diagnose, or predict health conditions $-$ are evaluated with a variety of performance metrics. An important first step in assessing the practical utility of a model is to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-27 Andrew C. Miller , Leon A. Gatys , Joseph Futoma , Emily B. Fox