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This study presents a framework for high-resolution mortality simulations tailored to insured and general populations. Due to the scarcity of detailed demographic-specific mortality data, we leverage Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) and…

Applications · Statistics 2025-04-18 Asmik Nalmpatian , Christian Heumann

We present a new method in problems where estimates are needed for finite population domains with small or even zero sample sizes. In contrast to known estimation methods, an auxiliary information is used to model sizes of population units…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-23 Andrius Čiginas , Tomas Rudys

In low and middle income countries, household surveys are a valuable source of information for a range of health and demographic indicators. Increasingly, subnational estimates are required for targeting interventions and evaluating…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-21 Katie Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Existing datasets available to address crucial problems, such as child mortality and family planning discontinuation in developing countries, are not ample for data-driven approaches. This is partly due to disjoint data collection efforts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Girmaw Abebe Tadesse , Celia Cintas , Skyler Speakman , Komminist Weldemariam

Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with a survival outcome are often challenged by immortal time (IMT), a period of follow-up during which the survival outcome cannot occur because of the observed later treatment initiation. It has…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-08 Jiping Wang , Peter Peduzzi , Michael Wininger , Shuangge Ma

Age-specific mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state and ethnicity. Forecasting age-specific mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in developing social…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-15 Han Lin Shang , Rob J Hyndman

This paper considers small-area estimation with lung cancer mortality data, and discusses the choice of upper-level model for the variation over areas. Inference about the random effects for the areas may depend strongly on the choice of…

Applications · Statistics 2009-05-25 Murray Aitkin , Charles C. Liu , Tom Chadwick

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

Applications · Statistics 2015-02-26 Meitner Cadena

The average household income is one of the most important indexes for decision making and the modelling of economic inequity and poverty. In this work we propose a practical procedure to estimate the average income using small area methods.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-12 Julieth Castañeda , Cristian Tellez , Jairo Fuquene

In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-02-26 Swagata Mitra , Pratyush Singh , Arni S. R. Srinivasa Rao

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-17 Katie Wilson , Jon Wakefield

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Chunyuan Li , Nikhil Mehta , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-30 Han Lin Shang

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Gregor Zens

The study of mortality patterns is a popular research topic in many areas. We are particularly interested in mortality patterns among main causes of death associated with age-gender combinations. We use symbolic data analysis (SDA) and…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-12 Simona Korenjak-Černe , Nataša Kejžar

We consider a compositional data analysis approach to forecasting the age distribution of death counts. Using the age-specific period life-table death counts in Australia obtained from the Human Mortality Database, the compositional data…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-22 Han Lin Shang , Steven Haberman

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-24 D. Manevski , H. Putter , M. Pohar Perme , E. F. Bonneville , J. Schetelig , L. C. de Wreede

The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-22 Mathias Lindholm , Gabriele Pittarello

There is an increasing focus on reducing inequalities in health outcomes in developing countries. Subnational variation is of particular interest, with geographic data used to understand the spatial risk of detrimental outcomes and to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Neal Marquez , Jon Wakefield

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-07 Peter A. Gao , Jon Wakefield