Related papers: Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty
While explainability is a desirable characteristic of increasingly complex black-box models, modern explanation methods have been shown to be inconsistent and contradictory. The semantics of explanations is not always fully understood - to…
It is common practice for data scientists to acquire and integrate disparate data sources to achieve higher quality results. But even with a perfectly cleaned and merged data set, two fundamental questions remain: (1) is the integrated data…
We estimate the dynamic distributional effects of financial shocks in the Euro Area using survey-based microdata on personal incomes. We find that positive financial shocks increase inequality, with heterogeneity across different income…
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a…
We study the process of information dispersal in a network with communication errors and local error-correction. Specifically we consider a simple model where a single bit of information initially known to a single source is dispersed…
Spreadsheet users regularly deal with uncertainty in their data, for example due to errors and estimates. While an insight into data uncertainty can help in making better informed decisions, prior research suggests that people often use…
Systems aiming to aid consumers in their decision-making (e.g., by implementing persuasive techniques) are more likely to be effective when consumers trust them. However, recent research has demonstrated that the machine learning algorithms…
This paper studies a class of consensus dynamics where the interactions between agents are affected by a time-varying unknown scaling factor. This situation is encountered in the control of robotic fleets over a wireless network or in…
The growing prevalence of fruitless disagreement threatens social cohesion and constructive public discourse. While polarised discussions often reflect distrust in the news, the link between disagreement and misinformation remains unclear.…
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can help them decide if and how to incorporate model…
The influence of a fixed number of agents with the same fixed behavior on the dynamics of the minority game is studied. Alternatively, the system studied can be considered the minority game with a change in the comfort threshold away from…
Measuring the corporate default risk is broadly important in economics and finance. Quantitative methods have been developed to predictively assess future corporate default probabilities. However, as a more difficult yet crucial problem,…
Although a system is described by a well-known set of equations leading to a deterministic behavior, in the real world the value of a measurand obtained by an experiment will mostly scatter. Accordingly, an uncertainty is associated with…
We investigate opinion formation in a kinetic exchange opinion model, where opinions are represented by numbers in the real interval $[-1,1]$ and agents are typified by the individual degree of conviction about the opinion that they…
I develop a rather simple agent-based model to capture a co-evolution of opinion formation, political decision making and economic outcomes. I use this model to study how societies form opinions if their members have opposing interests.…
Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…
Using a semi-structural approach, the paper identifies how heterogeneity and financial frictions affect the transmission of aggregate shocks. Approximating a heterogeneous agent model around the representative agent allocation can…
Empirical studies are inconclusive about the underlying mechanisms that shape the interrelated dynamics of opinions and interpersonal attraction. There is strong evidence that others whom are liked have a positive influence on opinions and…
The formation of agents' opinions in a social system is the result of an intricate equilibrium among several driving forces. On the one hand, the social pressure exerted by peers favours the emergence of local consensus. On the other hand,…
Understanding and communicating data uncertainty is crucial for making informed decisions in sectors like finance and healthcare. Previous work has explored how to express uncertainty in various modes. For example, uncertainty can be…