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Staggered treatment adoption arises in the evaluation of policy impact and implementation in many settings, including both randomized stepped-wedge trials and non-randomized quasi-experiments with panel data. In both settings, getting an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-14 Lee Kennedy-Shaffer

A crucial task for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to specify a statistical method that can yield an efficient estimator and powerful test for the treatment effect. A novel and effective strategy to obtain efficient and powerful…

Estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) at the individual level is central to precision marketing, yet systematic benchmarking of uplift modeling methods at industrial scale remains limited. We present UpliftBench, an…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-08 Aman Singh

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Decision tree learning is increasingly being used for pointwise inference. Important applications include causal heterogenous treatment effects and dynamic policy decisions, as well as conditional quantile regression and design of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-08 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

The gradient boosting machine is a powerful ensemble-based machine learning method for solving regression problems. However, one of the difficulties of its using is a possible discontinuity of the regression function, which arises when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Andrei V. Konstantinov , Lev V. Utkin

With a large number of baseline covariates, we propose a new semi-parametric modeling strategy for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation and individualized treatment selection, which are two major goals in personalized medicine. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-12 Wenchuan Guo , Xiao-hua Zhou , Shujie Ma

We develop flexible, semiparametric estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) transported to a new population ("target population") that offer potential efficiency gains. Transport may be of value when the ATE may differ across…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas T. Williams , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Ivan Diaz

One primary goal of precision medicine is to estimate the individualized treatment rules (ITRs) that optimize patients' health outcomes based on individual characteristics. Health studies with multiple treatments are commonly seen in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-07 Xuqiao Li , Qiuyan Zhou , Ying Wu , Ying Yan

The identification of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) across subgroups is of significant interest in clinical trial analysis. Several state-of-the-art HTE estimation methods, including causal forests, apply recursive partitioning for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Vik Shirvaikar , Andrea Storås , Xi Lin , Chris Holmes

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are studies where treatment is randomized at the cluster level but outcomes are typically collected at the individual level. When CRTs are employed in pragmatic settings, baseline population characteristics…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-22 Mary M. Ryan , Denise Esserman , Fan Li

Accurate heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is essential for personalized recommendations, making it important to evaluate and compare HTE estimators. Traditional assessment methods are inapplicable due to missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 Zijun Gao

Recursive decision trees are widely used to estimate heterogeneous causal treatment effects in experimental and observational studies. These methods are typically implemented using CART-type recursive partitioning and are often viewed as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Matias D. Cattaneo , Jason M. Klusowski , Ruiqi Rae Yu

The estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) is crucial for understanding the heterogeneity of treatment effects in clinical trials. We evaluate the performance of common methods, including causal forests and various…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Oshri Machluf , Tzviel Frostig , Gal Shoham , Tomer Milo , Elad Berkman , Raviv Pryluk

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are used in medicine to tailor sequential treatment decisions to patients by considering patient heterogeneity. Common methods for learning optimal DTRs, however, have shortcomings: they are typically based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-21 Theresa Blümlein , Joel Persson , Stefan Feuerriegel

When the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption is violated and there is interference among units, there is not a uniquely defined Average Treatment Effect, and alternative estimands may be of interest. Among these are average unit-level…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Molly Offer-Westort , Drew Dimmery

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become an increasingly popular task in various fields, as it helps design personalized advertisements in e-commerce or targeted treatment in biomedical studies. However, most of the existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Waverly Wei , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Treatment effect estimation (TEE) is the task of determining the impact of various treatments on patient outcomes. Current TEE methods fall short due to reliance on limited labeled data and challenges posed by sparse and high-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Ruoqi Liu , Lingfei Wu , Ping Zhang

State-level policy studies often conduct heterogeneity analyses that quantify how treatment effects vary across state characteristics. These analyses may be used to inform state-specific policy decisions, or to infer how the effect of a…