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We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Ryan Giordano , Tamara Broderick

We propose a novel capsule network based variational encoder architecture, called Bayesian capsules (B-Caps), to modulate the mean and standard deviation of the sampling distribution in the latent space. We hypothesized that this approach…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Harish RaviPrakash , Syed Muhammad Anwar , Ulas Bagci

A simple approach to obtaining uncertainty-aware neural networks for regression is to do Bayesian linear regression (BLR) on the representation from the last hidden layer. Recent work [Riquelme et al., 2018, Azizzadenesheli et al., 2018]…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-17 John Moberg , Lennart Svensson , Juliano Pinto , Henk Wymeersch

Deep neural networks are highly susceptible to learning biases in visual data. While various methods have been proposed to mitigate such bias, the majority require explicit knowledge of the biases present in the training data in order to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Rebecca S Stone , Nishant Ravikumar , Andrew J Bulpitt , David C Hogg

In this paper we introduce two Bayesian estimators for learning the parameters of the Gamma distribution. The first algorithm uses a well known unnormalized conjugate prior for the Gamma shape and the second one uses a non-linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-13 A. Llera , C. F. Beckmann

Equivariant models leverage prior knowledge on symmetries to improve predictive performance, but misspecified architectural constraints can harm it instead. While work has explored learning or relaxing constraints, selecting among…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans , Dharmesh Tailor , Erik J. Bekkers

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Erdong Guo , David Draper

We introduce a new, rigorously-formulated Bayesian meta-learning algorithm that learns a probability distribution of model parameter prior for few-shot learning. The proposed algorithm employs a gradient-based variational inference to infer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Cuong Nguyen , Thanh-Toan Do , Gustavo Carneiro

We present a novel method for image anomaly detection, where algorithms that use samples drawn from some distribution of "normal" data, aim to detect out-of-distribution (abnormal) samples. Our approach includes a combination of encoder and…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-02 Nina Tuluptceva , Bart Bakker , Irina Fedulova , Anton Konushin

Bayesian meta-learning enables robust and fast adaptation to new tasks with uncertainty assessment. The key idea behind Bayesian meta-learning is empirical Bayes inference of hierarchical model. In this work, we extend this framework to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Yayi Zou , Xiaoqi Lu

Symbolic regression with polynomial neural networks and polynomial neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are two recent and powerful approaches for equation recovery of many science and engineering problems. However, these methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Colby Fronk , Jaewoong Yun , Prashant Singh , Linda Petzold

Deep learning-based image reconstruction approaches have demonstrated impressive empirical performance in many imaging modalities. These approaches usually require a large amount of high-quality paired training data, which is often not…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-21 Riccardo Barbano , Zeljko Kereta , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon R. Arridge , Bangti Jin

Modeling uncertainty in deep neural networks, despite recent important advances, is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are a powerful solution, where the prior over network weights is a design choice, often a normal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-29 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Yaniv Gurwicz , Shami Nisimov , Gal Novik

Inverse problems aim to determine model parameters of a mathematical problem from given observational data. Neural networks can provide an efficient tool to solve these problems. In the context of Bayesian inverse problems, Uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Andrea Tonini , Tan Bui-Thanh , Francesco Regazzoni , Luca Dede' , Alfio Quarteroni

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-19 Stefanie Muff , Andrea Riebler , Havard Rue , Philippe Saner , Leonhard Held

There are several challenges associated with inverse problems in which we seek to reconstruct a piecewise constant field, and which we model using multiple level sets. Adopting a Bayesian viewpoint, we impose prior distributions on both the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-01 William Reese , Arvind K. Saibaba , Jonghyun Lee

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

The linearised Laplace method for estimating model uncertainty has received renewed attention in the Bayesian deep learning community. The method provides reliable error bars and admits a closed-form expression for the model evidence,…

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