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We present a unified three-state model (TSM) framework for evaluating treatment effects in clinical trials in the presence of treatment crossover. Researchers have proposed diverse methodologies to estimate the treatment effect that would…
This paper investigates decision-making in A/B experiments for online platforms and marketplaces. In such settings, due to constraints on inventory, A/B experiments typically lead to biased estimators because of *interference* between…
We present current methods for estimating treatment effects and spillover effects under "interference", a term which covers a broad class of situations in which a unit's outcome depends not only on treatments received by that unit, but also…
Epidemiological approaches for examining human health responses to environmental exposures in observational studies often control for confounding by implementing clever matching schemes and using statistical methods based on conditional…
Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…
External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…
Classical designs of randomized experiments, going back to Fisher and Neyman in the 1930s still dominate practice even in online experimentation. However, such designs are of limited value for answering standard questions in settings,…
We consider the problem of indirect comparison, where a treatment arm of interest is absent by design in one randomized controlled trial but available in the other. The former is the target trial, and the latter is the source trial. The…
Cross-validation is a statistical tool that can be used to improve large covariance matrix estimation. Although its efficiency is observed in practical applications and a convergence result towards the error of the non linear shrinkage is…
We propose causal isotonic calibration, a novel nonparametric method for calibrating predictors of heterogeneous treatment effects. Furthermore, we introduce cross-calibration, a data-efficient variant of calibration that eliminates the…
Background: The hazard ratio of the Cox proportional hazards model is widely used in randomized controlled trials to assess treatment effects. However, two properties of the hazard ratio including the non-collapsibility and built-in…
It is usual to consider data protection and learnability as conflicting objectives. This is not always the case: we show how to jointly control inference --- seen as the attack --- and learnability by a noise-free process that mixes…
A growing area of research in epidemiology is the identification of health-related sibling spillover effects, or the effect of one individual's exposure on their sibling's outcome. The health and health care of family members may be…
Two-stage randomized experiments are becoming an increasingly popular experimental design for causal inference when the outcome of one unit may be affected by the treatment assignments of other units in the same cluster. In this paper, we…
The safe transition from conditional automation to manual driving control is significantly intertwined with the vehicle's lateral and longitudinal dynamics. The transition may occur as a result of a system-initiated mandatory takeover…
We study diffusion in a one-dimensional periodic array of scatterers modeled by a simple map. The chaotic scattering process for this map can be changed by a control parameter and exhibits the dynamics of a crisis in chaotic scattering. We…
There has been a split in the statistics community about the need for taking covariates into account in the design phase of a clinical trial. There are many advocates of using stratification and covariate-adaptive randomization to promote…
A platform trial with a master protocol provides an infrastructure to ethically and efficiently evaluate multiple treatment options in multiple diseases. Given that certain study drugs can enter or exit a platform trial, the randomization…
Perceptual decision making is the subject of many experimental and theoretical studies. Whereas most modeling analysis are based on statistical processes of accumulation of evidence, less attention is being devoted to the modeling with…
This paper examines how outcome modality in intertemporal choice influences time preferences and whether the process differs across cultures, specifically Japan and the United States. Uni-modal choices are those when the outcomes being…