Related papers: Adaptive hedging horizon and hedging performance e…
The mean-variance hedging (MVH) problem is studied in a partially observable market where the drift processes can only be inferred through the observation of asset or index processes. Although most of the literatures treat the MVH problem…
Domain shift remains a key challenge in deploying machine learning models to the real world. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) aims to address this by minimising domain discrepancy during training, but the discrepancy estimates suffer…
We study hedging and pricing of unattainable contingent claims in a non-Markovian regime-switching financial model. Our financial market consists of a bank account and a risky asset whose dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion and a…
In this paper we focus on the tracking performance of incremental adaptive LMS algorithm in an adaptive network. For this reason we consider the unknown weight vector to be a time varying sequence. First we analyze the performance of…
We develop an adaptive-metric framework for norm-minimization-based outer approximation algorithms in bounded convex vector optimization. The key idea is to let the scalarization metric vary across iterations while measuring approximation…
To avoid ineffective collisions between the equilibrium states, the hybrid method with deviational particles (HDP) has been proposed to integrate the Vlasov-Poisson-Landau system, while leaving a new issue in sampling deviational particles…
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…
Predicting a driver's cognitive state, or more specifically, modeling a driver's reaction time (RT) in response to the appearance of a potential hazard warrants urgent research. In the last two decades, the electric field that is generated…
We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…
We develop the setting of sequential prediction based on shifting experts and on a "smooth" version of the method of specialized experts. To aggregate experts predictions, we use the AdaHedge algorithm, which is a version of the Hedge…
Business environments characterized by intermittent demand, high variability, and multi-step planning require model selection procedures aligned with future operational horizons rather than static test-horizon evaluation. Because no…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are popular likelihood-based generative models which can be efficiently trained by maximizing an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). There has been much progress in improving the expressiveness of the variational…
We consider an investor who wants to hedge a path-dependent option with maturity $T$ using a static hedging portfolio using cash, the underlying, and vanilla put/call options on the same underlying with maturity $ t_1$, where $0 < t_1 < T$.…
Statistical models for networks with complex dependencies pose particular challenges for model selection and evaluation. In particular, many well-established statistical tools for selecting between models assume conditional independence of…
Motion prediction is a crucial task in autonomous driving, and one of its major challenges lands in the multimodality of future behaviors. Many successful works have utilized mixture models which require identification of positive mixture…
Huang's Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is an algorithm for analyzing nonstationary data that provides a localized time-frequency representation by decomposing the data into adaptively defined modes. EMD can be used to estimate a…
This paper investigates the convergence properties of the hypergradient descent method (HDM), a 25-year-old heuristic originally proposed for adaptive stepsize selection in stochastic first-order methods. We provide the first rigorous…
Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) describes the interaction between electrically conducting fluids and electromagnetic fields. We propose and analyze a symplectic, second-order algorithm for the evolutionary MHD system in Els\"asser variables. We…
In this paper, based on real-time nonlinear receding horizon control methodology, a novel approach is developed for parameter estimation of time invariant and time varying nonlinear dynamical systems in chaotic environments. Here, the…
Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…