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The generalization performance of a risk prediction model can be evaluated by its calibration, which measures the agreement between predicted and observed outcomes on external validation data. Here, methods for assessing the calibration of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-31 Moritz Berger , Matthias Schmid

Model averaging, as an appealing ensemble technique, strategically integrates all valuable information from candidate models to construct fast and accurate prediction. Despite of having been widely practiced in many fields such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Zhuang Yong , Lv Jing , Tingting Li

Adaptive importance sampling for stochastic optimization is a promising approach that offers improved convergence through variance reduction. In this work, we propose a new framework for variance reduction that enables the use of mixtures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-01 Zalán Borsos , Sebastian Curi , Kfir Y. Levy , Andreas Krause

Generative models frequently suffer miscalibration, wherein statistics of the sampling distribution, such as the fraction of generations in a given class, deviate from desired values. We frame calibration as a constrained optimization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Henry D. Smith , Nathaniel L. Diamant , Brian L. Trippe

Uncertainty modeling has become increasingly important in power system decision-making. The widely-used tractable uncertainty modeling method-chance constraints with Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) approximation, can be overconservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-02 Yilin Wen , Yi Guo , Zechun Hu , Gabriela Hug

We propose a novel modeling framework to study the effect of covariates of various types on the conditional distribution of the response. The methodology accommodates flexible model structure, allows for joint estimation of the quantiles at…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-31 So Young Park , Cai Li , Santa-Maria Mendoza , Eric van Heugten , Ana-Maria Staicu

We consider a class of conditional forward-backward diffusion models for conditional generative modeling, that is, generating new data given a covariate (or control variable). To formally study the theoretical properties of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Rong Tang , Lizhen Lin , Yun Yang

We propose a new method to impute missing values in mixed datasets. It is based on a principal components method, the factorial analysis for mixed data, which balances the influence of all the variables that are continuous and categorical…

Applications · Statistics 2013-02-20 Vincent Audigier , François Husson , Julie Josse

A weighted likelihood technique for robust estimation of a multivariate Wrapped Normal distribution for data points scattered on a p-dimensional torus is proposed. The occurrence of outliers in the sample at hand can badly compromise…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-01 Giovanni Saraceno , Claudio Agostinelli , Luca Greco

We present an alternating least squares type numerical optimization scheme to estimate conditionally-independent mixture models in $\mathbb{R}^n$, without parameterizing the distributions. Following the method of moments, we tackle an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-09 Yifan Zhang , Joe Kileel

Quantile regression (QR) relies on the estimation of conditional quantiles and explores the relationships between independent and dependent variables. At high probability levels, classical QR methods face extrapolation difficulties due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-16 Lucien M. Vidagbandji , Alexandre Berred , Cyrille Bertelle , Laurent Amanton

We propose a new method for the determination of the weight factor for the simulated tempering method. In this method a short replica-exchange simulation is performed and the simulated tempering weight factor is obtained by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 A. Mitsutake , Y. Okamoto

In real data analysis, the underlying model is usually unknown, modelling strategy plays a key role in the success of data analysis. Stimulated by the idea of model averaging, we propose a novel semiparametric modelling strategy for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-21 Chaohui Guo , Wenyang Zhang

We propose three novel consistent specification tests for quantile regression models which generalize former tests in three ways. First, we allow the covariate effects to be quantile-dependent and nonlinear. Second, we allow parameterizing…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-07 Tim Kutzker , Nadja Klein , Dominik Wied

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

In spite of the recent surge of interest in quantile regression, joint estimation of linear quantile planes remains a great challenge in statistics and econometrics. We propose a novel parametrization that characterizes any collection of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-14 Yun Yang , Surya Tokdar

We extend the problem of obtaining an estimator for the finite population mean parameter incorporating complete auxiliary information through calibration estimation in survey sampling but considering a functional data framework. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-06 Santiago Gallón , Jean-Michel Loubes , Fabrice Gamboa

Survival prediction often involves estimating the time-to-event distribution from censored datasets. Previous approaches have focused on enhancing discrimination and marginal calibration. In this paper, we highlight the significance of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

To avoid specification of the error distribution in a regression model, we propose a general nonparametric scale mixture model for the error distribution. For fitting such mixtures, the predictive recursion method is a simple and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-03 Ryan Martin , Zhen Han

Multivariate normal mixtures provide a flexible model for high-dimensional data. They are widely used in statistical genetics, statistical finance, and other disciplines. Due to the unboundedness of the likelihood function, classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-27 Jiahua Chen , Xianming Tan