Related papers: Non-Asymptotic State-Space Identification of Close…

We propose a generalization of the recently developed system identification method called Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS). The proposed construction is based on the instrumental variables estimate and, unlike the original SPS, it can construct…

We propose a new system identification method, called Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS), for constructing non-asymptotic confidence regions under mild statistical assumptions. SPS is introduced for linear regression models, including but not…

Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) is a system identification method that constructs confidence regions for the unknown system parameters. In this paper, we study SPS for ARX systems, and establish that the confidence regions are guaranteed to…

Sign-Perturbed Sum (SPS) is a powerful finite-sample system identification algorithm which can construct confidence regions for the true data generating system with exact coverage probabilities, for any finite sample size. SPS was developed…

We study the sample complexity of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) method, which constructs exact, non-asymptotic confidence regions for the true system parameters under mild statistical assumptions, such as independent and symmetric noise…

This letter studies a distribution-free, finite-sample data perturbation (DP) method, the Residual-Permuted Sums (RPS), which is an alternative of the Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) algorithm, to construct confidence regions. While SPS assumes…

In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…

We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…

One of the primary challenges of system identification is determining how much data is necessary to adequately fit a model. Non-asymptotic characterizations of the performance of system identification methods provide this knowledge. Such…

We consider the joint problem of system identification and inverse optimal control for discrete-time stochastic Linear Quadratic Regulators. We analyze finite and infinite time horizons in a partially observed setting, where the state is…

In this paper, we present a methodology to identify discrete-time state-space switched linear systems (SLSs) from input-output measurements. Continuous-state is not assumed to be measured. The key step is a deadbeat observer based…

The least squares (LS) estimate is the archetypical solution of linear regression problems. The asymptotic Gaussianity of the scaled LS error is often used to construct approximate confidence ellipsoids around the LS estimate, however, for…

This paper investigates the ability of the stochastic subspace identification technique to return a valid model from finite measurement data, its asymptotic properties as the data set becomes large, and asymptotic error bounds of the…

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the…

State space subspace algorithms for input-output systems have been widely applied but also have a reasonably well-developedasymptotic theory dealing with consistency. However, guaranteeing the stability of the estimated system matrix is a…

Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…

The subspace identification method (SIM) has become a widely adopted approach for the identification of discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) systems. In this paper, we derive finite sample high-probability error bounds for the system…

We propose a decentralized subspace algorithm for identification of large-scale, interconnected systems that are described by sparse (multi) banded state-space matrices. First, we prove that the state of a local subsystem can be…

State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…