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Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference and gives rise to biased estimates. In this article, we consider the problem of individualized decision-making under partial identification. Firstly, we argue that when faced with…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-22 Yifan Cui

We address the problem of estimating the effect of intervening on a set of variables X from experiments on a different set, Z, that is more accessible to manipulation. This problem, which we call z-identifiability, reduces to ordinary…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Elias Bareinboim , Judea Pearl

We investigate the possibility of distinguishing among different causal relations starting from a limited set of marginals. Our main tool is the notion of adhesivity, that is, the extension of probability or entropies defined only on…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-10-28 Costantino Budroni , Nikolai Miklin , Rafael Chaves

Positivity, the assumption that every unique combination of confounding variables that occurs in a population has a non-zero probability of an action, can be further delineated as deterministic positivity and stochastic positivity. Here, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Paul N Zivich , Stephen R Cole , Daniel Westreich

Probabilities of Causation play a fundamental role in decision making in law, health care and public policy. Nevertheless, their point identification is challenging, requiring strong assumptions such as monotonicity. In the absence of such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-06 Numair Sani , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Dominik Janzing

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Xinshuai Dong , Ignavier Ng , Biwei Huang , Yuewen Sun , Songyao Jin , Roberto Legaspi , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

This chapter reviews the microeconometrics literature on partial identification, focusing on the developments of the last thirty years. The topics presented illustrate that the available data combined with credible maintained assumptions…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-04-27 Francesca Molinari

Many causal models of interest in epidemiology involve longitudinal exposures, confounders and mediators. However, repeated measurements are not always available or used in practice, leading analysts to overlook the time-varying nature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-21 Lola Etievant , Vivian Viallon

Identification of causal effects is one of the most fundamental tasks of causal inference. We consider an identifiability problem where some experimental and observational data are available but neither data alone is sufficient for the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-03-13 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Causal effect identification considers whether an interventional probability distribution can be uniquely determined without parametric assumptions from measured source distributions and structural knowledge on the generating system. While…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-30 Santtu Tikka , Antti Hyttinen , Juha Karvanen

A fundamental challenge of scientific research is inferring causal relations based on observed data. One commonly used approach involves utilizing structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among interacting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-13 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

When evaluating causal influence from one time series to another in a multivariate dataset it is necessary to take into account the conditioning effect of the other variables. In the presence of many variables, and possibly of a reduced…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-03-26 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

A physical explanation for quantum bounds to nonlocality (Tsirelson's bound) is a fundamental problem that remains open, and one approach to explaining its origins is the so-called Exclusivity principle, relying on probabilistic assumptions…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-06-06 Cássio S. Amorim

In designed experiments and surveys, known laws or design feat ures provide checks on the most relevant aspects of a model and identify the target parameters. In contrast, in most observational studies in the health and social sciences, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-01-18 Sander Greenland

Causal effect estimation is important for many tasks in the natural and social sciences. We design algorithms for the continuous partial identification problem: bounding the effects of multivariate, continuous treatments when unmeasured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-18 Kirtan Padh , Jakob Zeitler , David Watson , Matt Kusner , Ricardo Silva , Niki Kilbertus

The long-standing identification problem for causal effects in graphical models has many partial results but lacks a systematic study. We show how computer algebra can be used to either prove that a causal effect can be identified,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-07-23 Luis David García-Puente , Sarah Spielvogel , Seth Sullivant

In studies of discrimination, researchers often seek to estimate a causal effect of race or gender on outcomes. For example, in the criminal justice context, one might ask whether arrested individuals would have been subsequently charged or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-06 Johann Gaebler , William Cai , Guillaume Basse , Ravi Shroff , Sharad Goel , Jennifer Hill

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde