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In personalized medicine, the ability to predict and optimize treatment outcomes across various time frames is essential. Additionally, the ability to select cost-effective treatments within specific budget constraints is critical. Despite…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Thomas Schwarz , Cecilia Casolo , Niki Kilbertus

There is increasing interest in allocating treatments based on observed individual characteristics: examples include targeted marketing, individualized credit offers, and heterogeneous pricing. Treatment personalization introduces…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-06 Evan Munro

In the last few decades or so, we witness a paradigm shift in our nature studies - from a data-processing based computational approach to an information-processing based cognitive approach. The process is restricted and often misguided by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-05-20 Emanuel Diamant

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-17 Ruth H. Keogh , Nan van Geloven

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Nathan Kallus

This paper proposes a novel method to estimate individualised treatment assignment rules. The method is designed to find rules that are stochastic, reflecting uncertainty in estimation of an assignment rule and about its welfare…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-22 Toru Kitagawa , Hugo Lopez , Jeff Rowley

Unaided human decision making appears to systematically violate consistency constraints imposed by normative theories; these biases in turn appear to justify the application of formal decision-analytic models. It is argued that both claims…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Marvin S. Cohen

Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Guang-Yuan Hao , Jiji Zhang , Biwei Huang , Hao Wang , Kun Zhang

How should my own decisions affect my beliefs about the outcomes I expect to achieve? If taking a certain action makes me view myself as a certain type of person, it might affect how I think others view me, and how I view others who are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-07-21 Matt MacDermott , Tom Everitt , Francesco Belardinelli

Precision medicine is a rapidly expanding area of health research wherein patient level information is used to inform treatment decisions. A statistical framework helps to formalize the individualization of treatment decisions that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-23 Coraline Danieli , Erica Moodie

Decision support systems for classification tasks are predominantly designed to predict the value of the ground truth labels. However, since their predictions are not perfect, these systems also need to make human experts understand when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Eleni Straitouri , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Important questions for impact evaluation require knowledge not only of average effects, but of the distribution of treatment effects. The inability to observe individual counterfactuals makes answering these empirical questions…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-25 Bruno Fava

Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-12-09 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Joshua R. Loftus , Julia Stoyanovich

Modern recommender systems face an increasing need to explain their recommendations. Despite considerable progress in this area, evaluating the quality of explanations remains a significant challenge for researchers and practitioners. Prior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-18 Yuanshun Yao , Chong Wang , Hang Li

Because many illnesses show heterogeneous response to treatment, there is increasing interest in individualizing treatment to patients [Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 66 (2009) 128--133]. An individualized treatment rule is a decision rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-18 Min Qian , Susan A. Murphy

The concept of privacy is inherently intertwined with human attitudes and behaviours, as most computer systems are primarily designed for human use. Especially in the case of Recommender Systems, which feed on information provided by…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2018-05-23 Sanchit Alekh

In this paper we review the notion of direct causal effect as introduced by Pearl (2001). We show how it can be formulated without counterfactuals, using intervention indicators instead. This allows to consider the natural direct effect as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-28 Vanessa Didelez , Philip Dawid , Sara Geneletti

Theoretical and applied research into privacy encompasses an incredibly broad swathe of differing approaches, emphasis and aims. This work introduces a new quantitative notion of privacy that is both contextual and specific. We argue that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Cameron Bell , Timothy Johnston , Antoine Luciano , Christian P Robert

Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Julius von Kügelgen , Abdirisak Mohamed , Sander Beckers