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In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

Learning heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) is an important problem across many fields. Most existing methods consider the setting with a single treatment arm and a single outcome metric. However, in many real world domains, experiments…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-13 Leon Yao , Caroline Lo , Israel Nir , Sarah Tan , Ariel Evnine , Adam Lerer , Alex Peysakhovich

We are interested in the distribution of treatment effects for an experiment where units are randomized to a treatment but outcomes are measured for pairs of units. For example, we might measure risk sharing links between households…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-11 Eric Auerbach , Yong Cai

This study investigates treatment effect estimation in the semi-supervised setting, also can be interpreted as prediction-powered inference. In our setting, we can use not only the standard triple of covariates, treatment indicator, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Masahiro Kato

This paper investigates efficient Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Event Study (ES) estimation using short panel data sets within the heterogeneous treatment effect framework, free from parametric functional form assumptions and allowing…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-24 Xiaohong Chen , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna , Haitian Xie

Time-to-event analyses are often plagued by both -- possibly unmeasured -- confounding and competing risks. To deal with the former, the use of instrumental variables for effect estimation is rapidly gaining ground. We show how to make use…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-04 Torben Martinussen , Stijn Vansteelandt

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-10 Erik Sverdrup , Yifan Cui

This paper analyzes difference-in-differences designs with a continuous treatment. We show that treatment-on-the-treated-type parameters are identified under a parallel trends assumption analogous to the binary treatment case. However,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Brantly Callaway , Andrew Goodman-Bacon , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

Many economic models feature moment conditions that involve latent variables. When the latent variables are individual fixed effects in an auxiliary panel data regression, we construct orthogonal moments that eliminate first-order bias…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Jiaqi Huang

There is a large literature on semiparametric estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded treatment assignment in settings with a fixed number of covariates. More recently attention has focused on settings with a large number…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens , Thai Pham , Stefan Wager

Randomized experiments (or A/B tests) are widely used to evaluate interventions in dynamic systems such as recommendation platforms, marketplaces, and digital health. In these settings, interventions affect both current and future system…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-08 Ramesh Johari , Tianyi Peng , Wenqian Xing

In this paper we study methods for estimating causal effects in settings with panel data, where some units are exposed to a treatment during some periods and the goal is estimating counterfactual (untreated) outcomes for the treated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-22 Susan Athey , Mohsen Bayati , Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido Imbens , Khashayar Khosravi

In this paper we study the least squares (LS) estimator in a linear panel regression model with unknown number of factors appearing as interactive fixed effects. Assuming that the number of factors used in estimation is larger than the true…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-04 Hyungsik Roger Moon , Martin Weidner

We show that identification in a general class of dynamic panel logit models with fixed effects is related to the truncated moment problem from the mathematics literature. We use this connection to show that the identified set for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-06 Christopher Dobronyi , Jiaying Gu , Kyoo il Kim , Thomas M. Russell

Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Synthetic Control (SC) are widely used methods for causal inference in panel data, each with distinct strengths and limitations. We propose a novel method for short-panel causal inference that integrates…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-26 Yixiao Sun , Haitian Xie , Yuhang Zhang

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Estimating the joint effect of a multivariate, continuous exposure is crucial, particularly in environmental health where interest lies in simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple environmental pollutants on health. We develop novel…

Many estimators of dynamic discrete choice models with persistent unobserved heterogeneity have desirable statistical properties but are computationally intensive. In this paper we propose a method to quicken estimation for a broad class of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-09 Jackson Bunting , Takuya Ura

Empirical work often uses treatment assigned following geographic boundaries. When the effects of treatment cross over borders, classical difference-in-differences estimation produces biased estimates for the average treatment effect. In…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-13 Kyle Butts

Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille