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We propose a new approach to solve optimal stopping problems via simulation. Working within the backward dynamic programming/Snell envelope framework, we augment the methodology of Longstaff-Schwartz that focuses on approximating the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-04 Robert B. Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

Nowadays many financial derivatives, such as American or Bermudan options, are of early exercise type. Often the pricing of early exercise options gives rise to high-dimensional optimal stopping problems, since the dimension corresponds to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-08-10 Sebastian Becker , Patrick Cheridito , Arnulf Jentzen , Timo Welti

The problem of optimal stopping with finite horizon in discrete time is considered in view of maximizing the expected gain. The algorithm proposed in this paper is completely nonparametric in the sense that it uses observed data from the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-24 Michael Kohler , Harro Walk

We propose a new method for solving optimal stopping problems (such as American option pricing in finance) under minimal assumptions on the underlying stochastic process $X$. We consider classic and randomized stopping times represented by…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-04 Christian Bayer , Paul Hager , Sebastian Riedel , John Schoenmakers

In this paper we develop a deep learning method for optimal stopping problems which directly learns the optimal stopping rule from Monte Carlo samples. As such, it is broadly applicable in situations where the underlying randomness can…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Sebastian Becker , Patrick Cheridito , Arnulf Jentzen

We study the properties of the free boundaries and the corresponding hitting times in the context of optimal stopping in discrete time. We first prove the continuity of the map from the boundaries to the expected value of the corresponding…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-16 H. Mete Soner , Valentin Tissot-Daguette

Sellers in online markets face the challenge of determining the right time to sell in view of uncertain future offers. Classical stopping theory assumes that sellers have full knowledge of the value distributions, and leverage this…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-06-30 Pieter Kleer , Johan van Leeuwaarden

In this paper we consider the following optimal stopping problem $$V^{\omega}_{\rm A}(s) = \sup_{\tau\in\mathcal{T}} \mathbb{E}_{s}[e^{-\int_0^\tau \omega(S_w) dw} g(S_\tau)],$$ where the process $S_t$ is a jump-diffusion process,…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-07 Jonas Al-Hadad , Zbigniew Palmowski

This work provides a novel convergence analysis for stochastic optimization in terms of stopping times, addressing the practical reality that algorithms are often terminated adaptively based on observed progress. Unlike prior approaches,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-17 Yasong Feng , Yifan Jiang , Tianyu Wang , Zhiliang Ying

We consider the optimal stopping time problem under model uncertainty $R(v)= {\text{ess}\sup\limits}_{ \mathbb{P} \in \mathcal{P}} {\text{ess}\sup\limits}_{\tau \in \mathcal{S}_v} E^\mathbb{P}[Y(\tau) \vert \mathcal{F}_v]$, for every…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-23 Ihsan Arharas , Siham Bouhadou , Astrid Hilbert , Youssef Ouknine

In this article we study and classify optimal martingales in the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems. In this respect we distinguish between weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales. It is shown that the family of weakly…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-03 Denis Belomestny , John Schoenmakers

We provide a characterization of an optimal stopping time for a class of finite horizon time-inconsistent optimal stopping problems (OSPs) of mean-field type, adapted to the Brownian filtration, including those related to mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-20 Boualem Djehiche , Mattia Martini

We propose a novel group of Gaussian Process based algorithms for fast approximate optimal stopping of time series with specific applications to financial markets. We show that structural properties commonly exhibited by financial time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Kshama Dwarakanath , Danial Dervovic , Peyman Tavallali , Svitlana S Vyetrenko , Tucker Balch

We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, It\^o diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-10 Timothy C. Johnson

We study optimal stopping problems related to the pricing of perpetual American options in an extension of the Black-Merton-Scholes model in which the dividend and volatility rates of the underlying risky asset depend on the running values…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Pavel V. Gapeev , Neofytos Rodosthenous

For an infinite-horizon continuous-time optimal stopping problem under non-exponential discounting, we look for an optimal equilibrium, which generates larger values than any other equilibrium does on the entire state space. When the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-15 Yu-Jui Huang , Zhou Zhou

Given a stochastic state process $(X_t)_t$ and a real-valued submartingale cost process $(S_t)_t$, we characterize optimal stopping times $\tau$ that minimize the expectation of $S_\tau$ while realizing given initial and target…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-24 Nassif Ghoussoub , Young-Heon Kim , Aaron Zeff Palmer

We study optimal stopping for diffusion processes with unknown model primitives within the continuous-time reinforcement learning (RL) framework developed by Wang et al. (2020), and present applications to option pricing and portfolio…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Min Dai , Yu Sun , Zuo Quan Xu , Xun Yu Zhou

Consider a discrete-time optimal selection problem where one observes a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials and receives a nonnegative reward upon stopping on a success. The aim is to find a single-choice strategy that maximises the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Zakaria Derbazi

Many decision problems in economics, information technology, and industry can be transformed to an optimal stopping of adapted random vectors with some utility function over the set of Markov times with respect to filtration build by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Krzysztof Szajowski