Related papers: A Deep Gaussian Process Model for Seismicity Backg…
This article proposes a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model by incorporating a renewal main-shock arrival process, which we term the renewal ETAS (RETAS) model. This…
An enhancement in seismic measuring instrumentation has been proven to have implications in the quantity of observed earthquakes, since denser networks usually allow recording more events. However, phenomena such as strong earthquakes or…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
The afterglow emission from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is a valuable source of information to understand the physics of these energetic explosions. The blast wave model has become the standard to describe the evolution of the afterglow…
In this short paper we propose to extend the ETAS model to micro-seismic events. For that we interpret the triggered events in an ETAS model as individual local clock advances of an independent background process. The solution of the ETAS…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…
We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…
Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…
Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold $m_d$) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters…
Induced seismicity has emerged as a source of a significant earthquake hazard associated with recent development of unconventional energy resources. Therefore, it is imperative to develop stochastic models that can accurately describe the…
Computer models are used as a way to explore complex physical systems. Stationary Gaussian process emulators, with their accompanying uncertainty quantification, are popular surrogates for computer models. However, many computer models are…
The search for gamma-ray counterparts to gravitational-wave events with the CALET Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (CGBM) requires accurate and robust background modeling. Previous CALET observing runs (O3 and O4) relied on averaged pre/post-event…
Estimating causal effects in quasi-experiments with spatio-temporal panel data often requires adjusting for unmeasured confounding that varies across space and time. Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer a flexible, nonparametric modeling approach…
Gaussian processes (GPs) play an essential role in biostatistics, scientific machine learning, and Bayesian optimization for their ability to provide probabilistic predictions and model uncertainty. However, GP inference struggles to scale…
In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then…
The epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS) is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power law decay ~1/t^{1+\theta} of seismicity after an earthquake) and…