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Related papers: Adaptive Probabilistic Forecasting of Electricity …

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Extreme weather variations and the increasing unpredictability of load behavior make it difficult to determine power grid dispatches that are robust to uncertainties. While machine learning (ML) methods have improved the ability to model…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-21 Aayushya Agarwal , Larry Pileggi

The energy market relies on forecasting capabilities of both demand and power generation that need to be kept in dynamic balance. Today, when it comes to renewable energy generation, such decisions are increasingly made in a liberalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Odin Foldvik Eikeland , Finn Dag Hovem , Tom Eirik Olsen , Matteo Chiesa , Filippo Maria Bianchi

Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Salih Salihoglu , Ibrahim Ahmed , Afshin Asadi

The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-02 Andreas Veit , Christoph Goebel , Rohit Tidke , Christoph Doblander , Hans-Arno Jacobsen

The growing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) significantly changes typical load curves in smart grids. With the development of fast charging technology, the volatility of EV charging demand is increasing, which requires additional…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-05 Kedi Zheng , Hanwei Xu , Zeyang Long , Yi Wang , Qixin Chen

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

We are interested in the online prediction of the electricity load, within the Bayesian framework of dynamic models. We offer a review of sequential Monte Carlo methods, and provide the calculations needed for the derivation of so-called…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-16 Tristan Launay , Anne Philippe , Sophie Lamarche

We focus on day-ahead electricity load forecasting of substations of the distribution network in France; therefore, our problem lies between the instability of a single consumption and the stability of a countrywide total demand. Moreover,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-17 Guillaume Lambert , Bachir Hamrouche , Joseph de Vilmarest

This paper proposes online algorithms for dynamic matching markets in power distribution systems, which at any real-time operation instance decides about matching -- or delaying the supply of -- flexible loads with available renewable…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-17 Deepan Muthirayan , Masood Parvania , Pramod P. Khargonekar

Load forecasting is an integral part of power system operations and planning. Due to the increasing penetration of rooftop PV, electric vehicles and demand response applications, forecasting the load of individual and a small group of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-06-19 Ling Zhang , Baosen Zhang

Accurate and reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is crucial for the efficient integration of renewable sources into the power grid. In particular, probabilistic forecasts are becoming essential for managing the intrinsic…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-12 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-04 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Alberto Gasparin , Slobodan Lukovic , Cesare Alippi

Greater direct electrification of end-use sectors with a higher share of renewables is one of the pillars to power a carbon-neutral society by 2050. However, in contrast to conventional power plants, renewable energy is subject to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-22 Jonathan Dumas , Antoine Wehenkel Damien Lanaspeze , Bertrand Cornélusse , Antonio Sutera

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 Yixiang Huang , Jianhua Pei , Luocheng Chen , Zhenchang Du , Jinfu Chen , Zirui Peng

Short-term load forecasting is of paramount importance in the efficient operation and planning of power systems, given its inherent non-linear and dynamic nature. Recent strides in deep learning have shown promise in addressing this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Paapa Kwesi Quansah , Edwin Kwesi Ansah Tenkorang

The rapid expansion of wind and solar energy leads to an increasing volatility in the electricity generation. Previous studies have shown that storage devices provide an opportunity to balance fluctuations in the power grid. An economical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Lars Siemer , Wided Medjroubi

As a key component of power system production simulation, load forecasting is critical for the stable operation of power systems. Machine learning methods prevail in this field. However, the limited training data can be a challenge. This…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-18 Linna Xu , Yongli Zhu

Accurate prediction of wind power is essential for the grid integration of this intermittent renewable source and aiding grid planners in forecasting available wind capacity. Spatial differences lead to discrepancies in climatological data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Md Saiful Islam Sajol , Md Shazid Islam , A S M Jahid Hasan , Md Saydur Rahman , Jubair Yusuf