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Importance sampling is often used in machine learning when training and testing data come from different distributions. In this paper we propose a new variant of importance sampling that can reduce the variance of importance sampling-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Philip S. Thomas , Emma Brunskill

Data integration approaches are increasingly used to enhance the efficiency and generalizability of studies. However, a key limitation of these methods is the assumption that outcome measures are identical across datasets -- an assumption…

The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

Uncertainty in the estimation of the causal effect in observational studies is often due to unmeasured confounding, i.e., the presence of unobserved covariates linking treatments and outcomes. Instrumental Variables (IV) are commonly used…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-30 M. Usaid Awan , Yameng Liu , Marco Morucci , Sudeepa Roy , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky

Principal stratification (PS) is a commonly used approach for understanding the mechanisms through which a treatment affects an outcome. The goal of this work is to extend the PS framework to studies with continuous treatments, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Joseph Antonelli , Minxuan Wu , Fabrizia Mealli , Brenden Beck , Alessandra Mattei

Clinical notes contain a large amount of clinically valuable information that is ignored in many clinical decision support systems due to the difficulty that comes with mining that information. Recent work has found success leveraging deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-13 Justin R. Lovelace , Nathan C. Hurley , Adrian D. Haimovich , Bobak J. Mortazavi

Measurement error can often be harmful when estimating causal effects. Two scenarios in which this is the case are in the estimation of (a) the average treatment effect when confounders are measured with error and (b) the natural indirect…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-04 Caleb H. Miles , Linda Valeri , Brent Coull

In this paper, we outline a principled approach to estimate an individualized treatment rule that is appropriate for data from observational studies where, in addition to treatment assignment not being independent of individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-05 Jeremy Roth , Noah Simon

A fundamental limitation of causal inference in observational studies is that perceived evidence for an effect might instead be explained by factors not accounted for in the primary analysis. Methods for assessing the sensitivity of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-14 Colin B. Fogarty

Observational studies are valuable tools for inferring causal effects in the absence of controlled experiments. However, these studies may be biased due to the presence of some relevant, unmeasured set of covariates. One approach to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 William Bekerman , Abhinandan Dalal , Carlo del Ninno , Dylan S. Small

We develop methodology for causal inference in observational studies when using propensity score subclassification on data constructed with probabilistic record linkage techniques. We focus on scenarios where covariates and binary treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-03 Joan Heck Wortman , Jerome P. Reiter

Covariate adjustment is a general method for improving precision when estimating treatment effects in randomized trials and is recommended by the FDA in its 2023 guidance when baseline variables are prognostic for the primary outcome. We…

In many observational studies in social science and medicine, subjects or units are connected, and one unit's treatment and attributes may affect another's treatment and outcome, violating the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA)…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Zhaonan Qu , Ruoxuan Xiong , Jizhou Liu , Guido Imbens

A reduced-rank mixed effects model is developed for robust modeling of sparsely observed paired functional data. In this model, the curves for each functional variable are summarized using a few functional principal components, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-08 Huiya Zhou , Xiaomeng Yan , Lan Zhou

Evaluating joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables, and their linear combinations, is a fundamental challenge in causal inference. This paper addresses the bounding and identification of these probabilities in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Naoya Hashimoto , Yuta Kawakami , Jin Tian

Post-treatment variables often complicate causal inference. They appear in many scientific problems, including noncompliance, truncation by death, mediation, and surrogate endpoint evaluation. Principal stratification is a strategy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Sizhu Lu , Zhichao Jiang , Peng Ding

We provide an inferential framework to assess variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects. This assessment is especially useful in high-risk domains such as medicine, where decision makers hesitate to rely on black-box treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Pawel Morzywolek , Peter B. Gilbert , Alex Luedtke

This project considers how one might augment a limited amount of data from randomized controlled trial (RCT) with more plentiful data from an observational database (ODB), in order to estimate a causal effect. In our motivating setting, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Evan Rosenman , Art B. Owen , Michael Baiocchi , Hailey Banack

We address estimation of intervention effects in experimental designs in which (a) interventions are assigned at the cluster level; (b) clusters are selected to form pairs, matched on observed characteristics; and (c) intervention is…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-24 Zhenke Wu , Constantine E. Frangakis , Thomas A. Louis , Daniel O. Scharfstein
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