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Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed.…
Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
Multiple long-term conditions (MLTC) are increasingly observed in clinical practice globally. Clustering methods to group diseases into commonly co-occurring clusters have been of interest for further understanding of how MLTC group…
Estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) are used to track progress in reducing child mortality and to evaluate countries' performance related to Millennium Development Goal 4. However, for the great majority of developing…
Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire…
There is growing interest in producing estimates of demographic and global health indicators in populations with limited data. Statistical models are needed to combine data from multiple data sources into estimates and projections with…
Transition Matching (TM) is an emerging paradigm for generative modeling that generalizes diffusion and flow-matching models as well as continuous-state autoregressive models. TM, similar to previous paradigms, gradually transforms noise…
For estimating area-specific parameters (quantities) in a finite population, a mixed model prediction approach is attractive. However, this approach strongly depends on the normality assumption of the response values although we often…
A rapid decline in mortality and fertility has become major issues in many developed countries over the past few decades. A precise model for forecasting demographic movements is important for decision making in social welfare policies and…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
This paper is devoted to the long-term dynamics of solutions to the Gurtin-MacCamy population model with a bistable birth function. We consider a one-parameter monotone family of initial distributions for the population such that for small…
Despite their scale and success, modern transformers are usually trained as single-minded systems: optimization produces a deterministic set of parameters, representing a single functional hypothesis about the data. Motivated by the analogy…
Quantifying the public/private sector supply of contraceptive methods within countries is vital for effective and sustainable family planning (FP) delivery. In many low and middle-income countries (LMIC), measuring the contraceptive supply…
The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…
Many applications in medical statistics as well as in other fields can be described by transitions between multiple states (e.g. from health to disease) experienced by individuals over time. In this context, multi-state models are a popular…
In comparative studies of progressive diseases, such as randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the mean Change From Baseline (CFB) of a continuous outcome at a pre-specified follow-up time across subjects in the target population is a…
Although the analysis of human mortality has a well-established history, the attempt to accurately forecast future death-rate patterns for different age groups and time horizons still attracts active research. Such a predictive focus has…
Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…