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Related papers: Design-based individual prediction

200 papers

While reliable data-driven decision-making hinges on high-quality labeled data, the acquisition of quality labels often involves laborious human annotations or slow and expensive scientific measurements. Machine learning is becoming an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-01 Tijana Zrnic , Emmanuel J. Candès

We examine study designs for extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population. Specifically, we consider nested trial designs, where randomized individuals are nested within a sample…

A fundamental issue in causal inference for Big Observational Data is confounding due to covariate imbalances between treatment groups. This can be addressed by designing the data prior to analysis. Existing design methods, developed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Yumin Zhang , Arman Sabbaghi

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

This paper considers the problem of design-based inference for the average treatment effect in finely stratified experiments. Here, by "design-based'' we mean that the only source of uncertainty stems from the randomness in treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-08 Yuehao Bai , Xun Huang , Joseph P. Romano , Azeem M. Shaikh , Max Tabord-Meehan

Interpretable classification models are built with the purpose of providing a comprehensible description of the decision logic to an external oversight agent. When considered in isolation, a decision tree, a set of classification rules, or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Riccardo Guidotti , Salvatore Ruggieri

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

A burgeoning paradigm in algorithm design is the field of algorithms with predictions, in which algorithms can take advantage of a possibly-imperfect prediction of some aspect of the problem. While much work has focused on using predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-18 Mikhail Khodak , Maria-Florina Balcan , Ameet Talwalkar , Sergei Vassilvitskii

In a regression model, prediction is typically performed after model selection. The large variability in the model selection makes the prediction unstable. Thus, it is essential to reduce the variability in model selection and improve…

Computation · Statistics 2024-04-11 Wataru Yoshida , Kei Hirose

An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Matthew R. Williams , Terrance D. Savitsky

There is a growing concern about typically opaque decision-making with high-performance machine learning algorithms. Providing an explanation of the reasoning process in domain-specific terms can be crucial for adoption in risk-sensitive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-11-28 Aditya Chattopadhyay , Stewart Slocum , Benjamin D. Haeffele , Rene Vidal , Donald Geman

Many applications of machine learning methods involve an iterative protocol in which data are collected, a model is trained, and then outputs of that model are used to choose what data to consider next. For example, one data-driven approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Clara Fannjiang , Stephen Bates , Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Jennifer Listgarten , Michael I. Jordan

Design-consistent model-assisted estimation has become the standard practice in survey sampling. However, a general theory is lacking so far, which allows one to incorporate modern machine-learning techniques that can lead to potentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-26 Luis Sanguiao Sande , Li-Chun Zhang

Adaptive experiments use preliminary analyses of the data to inform further course of action and are commonly used in many disciplines including medical and social sciences. Because the null hypothesis and experimental design are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao , Zijun Gao

An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Guido Consonni , Laura Deldossi

Algorithms for machine learning-guided design, or design algorithms, use machine learning-based predictions to propose novel objects with desired property values. Given a new design task -- for example, to design novel proteins with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Clara Fannjiang , Ji Won Park

Pre-validation is a way to build prediction model with two datasets of significantly different feature dimensions. Previous work showed that the asymptotic distribution of the resulting test statistic for the pre-validated predictor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-23 Jing Shang , Sourav Chatterjee , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-22 Leonardo Cella , Ryan Martin

A Bayesian design is given by maximising an expected utility over a design space. The utility is chosen to represent the aim of the experiment and its expectation is taken with respect to all unknowns: responses, parameters and/or models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-16 Antony M. Overstall , James M. McGree