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We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Shakeel Gavioli-Akilagun , Kieran Wood , Francesco Quinzan

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Whitney K. Huang , Adam H. Monahan , Francis W. Zwiers

This paper develops new extremal principles of variational analysis that are motivated by applications to constrained problems of stochastic programming and semi-infinite programming without smoothness and/or convexity assumptions. These…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-07-23 Boris S. Mordukhovich , Pedro Pérez-Aros

We consider sequential selection of an alternating subsequence from a sequence of independent, identically distributed, continuous random variables, and we determine the exact asymptotic behavior of an optimal sequentially selected…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-15 Alessandro Arlotto , Robert W. Chen , Lawrence A. Shepp , J. Michael Steele

The relationship between a time-dependent covariate and survival times is usually evaluated via the Cox model. Time-dependent covariates are generally available as longitudinal data collected regularly during the course of the study. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Jean-François Dupuy , Ion Grama , Mounir Mesbah

As a crucial problem in statistics is to decide whether additional variables are needed in a regression model. We propose a new multivariate test to investigate the conditional mean independence of Y given X conditioning on some known…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Ze Jin , Xiaohan Yan , David S. Matteson

The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Barnabas Poczos , Zoubin Ghahramani , Jeff Schneider

We propose a specification test for conditional location--scale models based on extremal dependence properties of the standardized residuals. We do so comparing the left-over serial extremal dependence -- as measured by the pre-asymptotic…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-05 Yannick Hoga

We consider asymptotic distributions of maximum deviations of sample covariance matrices, a fundamental problem in high-dimensional inference of covariances. Under mild dependence conditions on the entries of the data matrices, we establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-05 Han Xiao , Wei Biao Wu

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-02 Paul J. Northrop

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

This article deals with the problem of testing conditional independence between two random vectors ${\bf X}$ and ${\bf Y}$ given a confounding random vector ${\bf Z}$. Several authors have considered this problem for multivariate data.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-16 Bilol Banerjee

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

The asymptotic results that underlie applications of extreme random fields often assume that the variables are located on a regular discrete grid, identified with $\mathbb{Z}^2$, and that they satisfy stationarity and isotropy conditions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Helena Ferreira , Luísa Pereira , Ana Paula Martins

Big data is ubiquitous in practices, and it has also led to heavy computation burden. To reduce the calculation cost and ensure the effectiveness of parameter estimators, an optimal subset sampling method is proposed to estimate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-16 Haohui Han , Liya Fu

The occurrence of successive extreme observations can have an impact on society. In extreme value theory there are parameters to evaluate the effect of clustering of high values, such as the extremal index. The estimation of the extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

We consider stationary sequences whose marginal tail is subexponential and lies in the Gumbel Maximum domain of attraction. Due to the extremely strong dependence, their extreme values are caused by multiple big values and are clustered in…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Zao-Li Chen

We establish a theory for multivariate extreme value analysis of dynamical systems. Namely, we provide conditions adapted to the dynamical setting which enable the study of dependence between extreme values of the components of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-01-21 Romain Aimino , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

Estimation of causal effects using machine learning methods has become an active research field in econometrics. In this paper, we study the finite sample performance of meta-learners for estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects under…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Gabriel Okasa

When multiple investigators analyze a common dataset, the data reuse induces dependence across testing procedures, affecting the distribution of errors. Existing techniques of managing dependent tests require either cross-study coordination…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Reid Dale , Jordan Rodu , Maria E. Currie , Mike Baiocchi
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